The Ministry of Health and Welfare has decided to increase medical school enrollment by 490 seats for the 2027 academic year. The government explained it adopted a "staircase expansion" approach, gradually increasing capacity rather than implementing a one-time surge, to accommodate educational constraints.
According to the Ministry on the 11th, the government held the 7th Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee meeting at the Government Complex Seoul the previous day. It confirmed a total increase of 3,342 medical student seats from 2027 to 2031 across 32 medical schools outside Seoul.
Under the plan, enrollment will increase by 490 seats in 2027 compared to pre-conflict levels, followed by 613 seats annually in 2028-2029, and 813 seats annually in 2030-2031. The average annual increase will be 668 seats.
The Ministry said it will reflect only about 80% of the final expansion target in 2027 to ease the burden on educational institutions, with gradual increases thereafter. All additional enrollees at existing medical schools will be selected under the regional doctor system, receiving government support during their studies and serving 10 years at regional public medical institutions after graduation.
The expansion plan also includes a public medical school and regional medical schools in areas without existing programs. Both the four-year public medical graduate school and six-year regional medical schools will admit 100 new students annually starting in 2030.
The staircase approach reflects structural limitations in medical education. Concerns have been raised that large-scale expansion could cause unmanageable disruptions across lecture halls, laboratories, and training hospitals, given that the 2024 and 2025 cohorts are already in a "doubling" situation, attending classes simultaneously. Additional concerns centered on military leave returnees and general leave students returning, which could sharply deteriorate educational conditions.
Kim Taek-woo, President of the Korean Medical Association, previously stated at the 6th committee meeting: "Under the current plan, normal medical education could become virtually impossible in 2027-2028. The year 2027, when military leave returnees also return, will be the most difficult period for educational institutions."
Reflecting these concerns, the government plans to expand educational infrastructure alongside enrollment increases at each university. It will improve basic facilities such as lecture halls and progressively acquire equipment for basic medical experiments, practical training, and clinical skills practice. The Ministry of Education said it will require universities to submit detailed education and training plans, incorporate them into evaluation criteria, and review revoking enrollment quotas from non-compliant institutions.
However, some critics argue the expansion is too conservative. The Physician Workforce Supply-Demand Projection Committee estimated last December 30 that Korea would face a shortage of 5,704 to 11,136 doctors by 2040. After committee discussions, the baseline year was adjusted to 2037 with projected shortages narrowed to 2,530-4,800, but the confirmed expansion remains below even this revised estimate.
Some interpret the upper shortage estimate being halved in less than a month as the government moderating expansion ahead of June local elections to avoid repeating the extreme conflicts with the medical community experienced during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. Ahn Ki-jong, head of the Korea Alliance of Patients' Organizations, said: "The expansion was reduced under the pretext of educational conditions, but it essentially amounts to deferring to the medical community."
Health and Welfare Minister Jung Eun-kyung responded: "Medical workforce projections cannot be determined by a single figure but require comprehensive consideration of multiple scenarios. We respect the projection committee's findings, but this is a policy decision that accounts for educational conditions and feasibility."
University-specific allocations will be finalized in April following Ministry of Education allocation committee review and appeals procedures. The increased quotas will apply to 32 of the nation's 40 medical schools, excluding those in Seoul. The government set expansion caps by university type based on 2026 enrollment of 3,058 students. National universities with 50 or more seats can increase by up to 30%, while those with fewer than 50 can expand by up to 100%. Private regional medical schools with 50 or more seats can increase by up to 20%, and those with fewer than 50 by up to 30%.
Competition among regions for the new medical school scheduled to open in 2030 remains a variable. Minister Jung said: "For regional medical schools, we are prioritizing South Jeolla Province, which has no medical school," but added: "Other local governments including North Gyeongsang Province, which is medically underserved, are also requesting regional medical schools, so the location has not been finalized."
