On October 26 last year, Saudi Arabia's newly established airline Riyadh Air launched its first flight to London Heathrow. Famously launched personally by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the airline has set an ambitious goal of serving 100 cities by 2030.
As a working pilot based in the Middle East, this development gave me much to think about. The takeoff signaled that the Middle East aviation market structure, dominated over the past 20 years by Dubai's Emirates and Doha's Qatar Airways, has begun to shift. In the terms of the Three Kingdoms saga, it was as if Shu had thrown down its gauntlet in a realm already divided between Wei and Wu.
◾️ Emirates — An Aviation Empire Built on the Desert
The first to claim the Middle East skies was Dubai's Emirates. Starting with just two aircraft in 1985, the airline became the world's largest international carrier within 40 years. Of its approximately 250 aircraft, 116 are the Airbus A380, the world's largest passenger jet. The A380 can carry more than 800 passengers in an all-economy configuration.
Emirates' decisive moment came in the mid-2000s. At the time, the transit market connecting Europe and Australia was British Airways' home turf. But Emirates, armed with its Dubai hub, seized this market almost overnight. It was reminiscent of Cao Cao defeating Yuan Shao at the Battle of Guandu to become the dominant power of the central plains. British Airways led in capital and prestige, but lagged in efficiency and speed.
Even amid the fallout from the Iran war, Emirates remains overwhelming. Dubai International Airport serves as a virtual world capital where travelers from more than 130 countries transit. In 2024 alone, 92.3 million international passengers passed through. That figure dwarfs second-place London Heathrow (79.2 million) and third-place Incheon International Airport (70.7 million).
◾️ Qatar Airways — The Dignity of a Small Land
The other axis of this realm is Doha's Qatar Airways. How did Qatar, whose territory is only about the size of Gyeonggi Province, build an airline that competes for the world's top spot? The answer is the dignity of going all-in on premium service.
The business class "Qsuite" raised the industry standard by a notch. In-flight meals developed with Michelin-starred chefs, the imposing Al Mourjan Lounge, and the Skytrax World's Best Airline award received year after year. Qatar compensated for the limits of territory and resources with quality. Behind all this stands the robust backing of natural gas. Qatar is the world's second- or third-largest LNG exporter, and these abundant resources serve as Qatar Airways' support. It is akin to Sun Quan building up his forces with the bountiful supplies of the eastern region.
Qatar Airways' defining test came in 2017, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed ties with Qatar and closed their airspace. It was the airline's greatest crisis since its founding, but Qatar Airways did not collapse. It survived by pioneering detour routes through Iranian, Turkish, and Omani airspace.
Akbar Al Baker, the former CEO who led Qatar Airways for a total of 25 years until 2023, was a figure comparable to Zhuge Jin, the strategist who laid the foundations of the state of Wu. Joining the Oneworld alliance, forging strategic partnerships with British Airways and Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific — he is regarded as the seasoned strategist who paved the path of survival through alliances.
◾️ Riyadh Air — The Gauntlet, and the Three Visits
What has cracked this two-way division is Riyadh Air. Although a new airline wholly funded by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund PIF, it has already equipped itself with world-class armaments despite being a latecomer, placing firm orders for dozens of Boeing 787 Dreamliners right upon its launch.
What is interesting is the command. Saudi Arabia recruited Tony Douglas, who had led Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways — Emirates' younger sibling and a rival — as CEO of Riyadh Air. It was a "three visits to the thatched cottage," bringing in the strategist of a rival state. Douglas is the figure who turned Etihad to profit. No sooner had he taken over than, like Zhuge Liang executing his plan to divide the realm into three, he transformed the Middle East sky's two-power system between Emirates and Qatar Airways into a "Big 3" system.
Riyadh Air's cause today is weighty. It is the national mission of serving as the vanguard of Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030." For bin Salman's blueprint of breaking free from an oil-dependent economy and becoming a global hub, the aviation industry must rise — and at the forefront stands Riyadh Air. It is Liu Bei raising his army under the heavy cause of restoring the Han dynasty.
◾️ Impact on Korea
This battle for supremacy may appear unrelated to Korea, but it is not. First is the transit market. A significant share of travelers flying from Korea to Europe or Africa passes through one of the three major Middle East carriers. From Incheon to Dubai, Doha, and soon Riyadh. What aircraft they deploy on Korean routes and what prices they set directly determine how much Koreans pay for overseas travel. The arrival of Riyadh Air itself triggers competition. In the end, it benefits Korean consumers.
The bigger picture concerns the position of Korea's aviation industry. Following the merger of Korean Air and Asiana, Korea is aiming to become a Northeast Asian hub. Yet the Middle East is already building three global hubs. Dubai, Doha, and Riyadh. Three cities pursuing the same goal at the same time. This is not mere airline competition but city-level competition, and ultimately a matter of national strategy. There is no shortage of lessons for Korea.
Lastly, there is recruitment. Riyadh Air is currently opening its market aggressively and hiring with exceptional compensation packages. Other airlines, losing capable pilots, are offering better treatment and higher salaries to retain them. For young Koreans dreaming of becoming cabin crew or pilots at foreign airlines, a new option has emerged alongside Dubai and Doha.
Who will own the sky in 2030? In the actual Three Kingdoms saga, it was the Sima clan, based in Wei, who unified the realm. Whether the Middle East sky will follow the same path, or whether opportunity will come to Sun Quan's Wu or Liu Bei's Shu, cannot be known for now. One thing is clear. The era of two powers, Wei and Wu, has already ended, and the plan to divide the realm in three has just begun.
He is...
The author worked as a journalist in Korea covering industry and the economy before moving to Dubai in 2017, and currently works as a pilot at Air Arabia. He analyzes the industrial, political, and cultural environments of wealthy Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, sharing his insights with Korean readers. He graduated from Yonsei University with a degree in economics and earned a master's degree in arts management from the Korea National University of Arts. He is the author of "The Middle East, Closer Than You Think" and "The UAE As It Is."
