▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It curates and delivers six tailored news items by reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ E-commerce Market Reorganization Accelerates: Coupang swung to an operating loss of $242 million (354.5 billion won) in the first quarter in the aftermath of last November's personal data breach, while Naver invested an additional 33 billion won in Kurly to raise its stake to 6.2%, driving efforts to strengthen its commerce competitiveness. With Coupang's active customer count dropping by 700,000 from the previous quarter, Naver, SSG.com, and Lotte Mart are collectively intensifying their offensives to fill the gap, and analysts expect competition to intensify in the second half.
■ Capital Market Tailwinds and Shifts in Institutional Investor Strategy: As the KOSPI closed at 7,384.56 on the 6th, setting a new high, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) surged 14.41% to join the "trillion-dollar market cap club" as the second Asian member. The National Pension Service's fund size also surpassed 1,700 trillion won for the first time, with estimated returns of more than 250 trillion won in just four months. There is growing discussion that the domestic equity allocation could be raised further in the mid-term asset allocation plan to be finalized at the Fund Management Committee later this month.
■ Buffett Indicator at 256%, Fear Index Also Surges; Short-Term Overheating Warrants Caution: The KOSPI's total market capitalization (6,743 trillion won) reached 2.56 times nominal GDP (2,650 trillion won), exceeding the level of the U.S. market (225.9%). Market analysts say technical signs of short-term overheating are being detected and advise investors to focus on leading stocks with confirmed earnings rather than chasing laggards amid FOMO.
[News of Interest to Corporate CEOs]
1. Naver Pursues Coupang, Places Additional 33 Billion Won Bet on Kurly
- Key Summary: Naver decided to invest an additional 33 billion won in Kurly, raising its stake from 5.1% to 6.2%. Following the personal data breach, Naver Plus Store's monthly active users (MAU) surged 45.1% from 5.77 million in November last year to 8.38 million, while Coupang's MAU declined 3% over the same period. Industry-wide efforts to capitalize on the fallout are accelerating, with Lotte Mart's Ocado logistics center set to begin operations within the year and Gmarket and 11st ramping up their cross-border e-commerce strategies. Naver CEO Choi Soo-yeon publicly signaled her commitment to growing the commerce business, announcing plans to introduce unlimited free delivery linked to the 4,900-won monthly membership.
2. Alchemy of Waste Plastics: Petrochemical and Refining Firms Ramp Up Recycling Investment
- Key Summary: LG Chem (051910.KS), SK Chemicals (285130.KS), and GS Caltex are elevating investment in waste plastic recycling technology to a "resource security" strategy amid feedstock supply concerns from the Middle East. LG Chem invested 310 billion won to complete Korea's first pyrolysis oil plant in Dangjin, South Chungcheong Province, and SK Chemicals is building a depolymerization production system with annual capacity of 32,000 tons with a Chinese joint venture partner. The global plastic recycling market grew at an 8.1% compound annual rate from $58 billion in 2019 to $69.4 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach $120 billion by 2030. Industry observers say internalizing recycling technology is a means of securing both cost competitiveness and supply chain stability, going beyond simple compliance with environmental regulations.
3. National Pension Service Earns 250 Trillion Won in Four Months, Nearing Last Year's Returns
- Key Summary: The National Pension Service's fund size surpassed 1,700 trillion won for the first time on the 6th, with its return rate topping 15%, approaching last year's annual return of 18.82%. Analysts say the decision in January to raise the domestic equity allocation by 0.5 percentage points to 14.9% and to suspend the cap until the mid-term asset allocation plan is finalized has made a decisive contribution to fund performance. With the NPS holding stakes of 5% or more in approximately 1,300 companies — nearly half of all domestic listed firms — analysts say the direction of the mid-term asset allocation plan to be finalized at the Fund Management Committee later this month will have a significant impact on domestic equity market supply-demand dynamics and individual stock prices.
[Reference News for Corporate CEOs]
4. Straight to "Seven-Thousand KOSPI": Samsung Market Cap Crosses $1 Trillion
- Key Summary: The KOSPI closed at 7,384.56 on the 6th, surging 447.57 points (6.45%) to set an all-time high, with its year-to-date gain of 75.2% ranking an overwhelming first among G20 nations. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) soared 14.41% to cross the $1 trillion market cap threshold, joining the "trillion-dollar club" as the second Asian member, while SK hynix (000660.KS) also rose 10.64% to exceed 1.6 million won. Falling oil prices amid expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, combined with AI momentum, drove semiconductor stocks to lead the market. Korea Exchange Chairman Chung Eun-bo said, "Reaching the 7,000 KOSPI level means more than just index gains — it signals that the fundamental strength of the capital market has been reinforced," adding that "the 10,000 era is not far off."
- Key Summary: The KOSPI's Buffett indicator reached 256.56%, exceeding that of the U.S. (225.9%), while Korea's fear index (VKOSPI) also climbed 7.52% to 60.07, an unusual simultaneous surge alongside the market. With 30-year U.S. Treasury yields exceeding 5% and speculation emerging that Korea's base rate could rise as many as two times within the year, warnings are being raised that the impact of a rate shock could be amplified given that AI infrastructure investment is leverage-based. Kim Hak-kyun, head of the Shinyoung Securities research center, said, "With few arguments to suggest semiconductor expectations will fade, it is difficult to expect broad-based sector rotation," recommending concentration on leading stocks.
6. Chinese Big Tech Left Behind Alone in Global Tech Rally
- Key Summary: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) set an all-time high on the 5th (local time), having surged 54% since the end of March, while AMD's first-quarter revenue jumped 38% year-on-year to $10.3 billion, pushing its shares more than 16% higher in after-hours trading. Taiwan's TAIEX also rose 41.8% this year to break above the 41,000 level, as the AI-driven tech stock rally expands across global markets. In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index fell 10.6% from the start of the year, with analysts attributing the underperformance to Chinese big tech firms such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu — which derive most of their revenue from traditional businesses like e-commerce, gaming, and advertising — being unable to reap the fruits of the AI rally. The fact that emerging AI companies such as Zhipu AI and MiniMax, which have surged more than 400%, are not included in the Hang Seng Tech Index is also cited as a factor behind the index's weakness.
▶ Full Article: Korea's 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Yearly High: "Expansionary Fiscal Policy Needs Pace Adjustment"
▶ Full Article: "Opposing Nation-Ruining Strike": New Samsung Electronics Shareholder Group Emerges with Criticism
