Speculation is rapidly growing that the United States and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to end their conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that "Iran should not have nuclear weapons, and they will not," adding that "they have agreed to this along with several other items." He also said the deal between the two countries would include the transfer of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile to the United States. Earlier, U.S. online news outlet Axios reported that a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran containing 14 items, including a temporary suspension of Iran's nuclear enrichment and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, was imminent. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the Axios report that nuclear issues were being addressed but said it was reviewing the U.S. proposal and would finalize its position and convey it to Pakistan.
If the Axios report and other information are accurate, prospects for ending the war are bright. However, it should be noted that an MOU has less legal binding force than a treaty in diplomacy. Even if the two countries include Iran's denuclearization in an MOU, armed conflict could resume if follow-up negotiations fail to reach a final agreement to end the war. Whether the Strait of Hormuz, blockaded during the war, will reopen is also a major variable. The United States is demanding the restoration of freedom of navigation, while Iran insists on control of the strait, including pre-authorization rights for vessel passage, with the two sides running on parallel tracks.
Even if the U.S. government reaches a final agreement with Iran, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that Washington will present "diplomatic, security and trade bills" citing the lack of cooperation from allies and partners during the war. Retaliatory measures recently announced by Trump, including a 5,000-troop reduction of U.S. forces stationed in Germany and a tariff increase on European Union passenger cars and trucks from 15% to 25%, are seen as prime examples. Korea is in no position to feel reassured either, given that the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is conducting an investigation into whether to apply Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows for the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on discriminatory trade practices by foreign countries.
The government must meticulously prepare for all variables that could arise regardless of whether a U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war is reached. As Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan, who traveled to the United States on Monday, is coordinating the announcement of the first U.S. investment projects under the Korea-U.S. "Joint Fact Sheet," tangible results are anticipated. Going forward, Korea must engage in more active communication with the United States so that there is not the slightest loss to our national interest. In the security arena as well, Korea must strictly manage risks to prevent disagreements from emerging between the two allies while strengthening practical combined Korea-U.S. readiness posture.
