As Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, energy-starved nations are lining up to negotiate with Tehran. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is demanding allied nations deploy warships to the region, complicating diplomatic calculations worldwide.
The Financial Times reported on May 13 (local time) that France and Italy have attempted talks with Iran to secure safe passage for their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. However, prospects for progress or Iranian acceptance remain uncertain.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told local newspaper Corriere della Sera: "We are working to ensure Europe speaks with a single, unified voice and are pursuing two key priorities. The first is to formally request that ships from non-belligerent countries be allowed to pass through Hormuz."
Shipping companies are hoping Western navies will provide tanker escorts, FT reported.
Option 1: Negotiate with Tehran
France and Italy are not alone in approaching Iran for passage through the strait. Turkey secured official approval quickly. Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu announced that a Turkish-owned bulk carrier received authorization to transit the strait following diplomatic contacts. The vessel, named Rozana, had previously used Iranian ports.
India successfully navigated two liquefied petroleum gas carriers through the strait. Rajesh Kumar Sinha, Special Secretary at India's Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, confirmed on May 14 (local time) that LPG carriers Shivalik and Nandi Devi safely passed through late the previous night. Twenty-four Indian-flagged vessels were in the Persian Gulf, and the government continues negotiations for the remaining 22.
India has been particularly persistent in negotiations. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held more than four meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi since hostilities began. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also spoke by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to discuss Indian vessel movements.
China is also in talks, with several ships already having transited the strait. Iran agreed to allow passage for Bangladesh-flagged vessels and this week approved a Liberian-flagged ship carrying Saudi crude.
Countries receiving transit approval are either neutral or lack prominent alliance ties with the United States. Turkey's approval may reflect Iran's preference for vessels with prior experience at Iranian ports. With over 80% of oil transiting Hormuz destined for Asian markets, countries like India had little choice but to engage Tehran. However, U.S. allies remain cautious, fearing American backlash over negotiations with Iran.
Option 2: Alternative Routes or Russian Oil
Global shipping companies are considering routes around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, but this adds 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles (approximately 6,482 to 7,408 kilometers) and 10 to 14 additional sailing days. Longer voyages mean higher fuel consumption, extended cargo transit times, and increased insurance premiums. A full-scale rerouting appears impractical given the costs and delays.
Pipeline alternatives include Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) in the United Arab Emirates. According to CNBC, the Saudi pipeline can handle 7 million barrels per day, while ADCOP processes about 1.8 million barrels daily. Navin Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, noted: "The UAE pipeline currently operates at 71% capacity, leaving approximately 440,000 barrels per day in spare capacity."
However, these pipelines fall far short of the strait's 20-million-barrel daily throughput. Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure also raise reliability concerns.
Russian crude, under sanctions following the Ukraine invasion, has emerged as an attractive alternative. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a license on May 12 (local time) authorizing foreign sales of Russian crude oil and petroleum products currently in transit at sea until April 11.
China and India are expected to absorb most Russian oil sales. Kpler estimates 80 million barrels of Russian crude are currently in transit, with 31 million barrels heading to India and 30 million to China.
European nations that led Russian sanctions immediately protested the U.S. move. European Council President António Costa stated: "The United States' unilateral lifting of sanctions on Russian oil exports is deeply concerning as it affects European security." German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called it "the wrong decision." Given Europe's strong opposition, Russian crude faces obstacles to global distribution.
Trump Demands Warship Deployments
As energy concerns intensify, Trump called on "China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and other countries affected by artificial constraints on the Strait of Hormuz to deploy warships to the region."
"Countries receiving oil through the strait must help manage it, and the United States will provide significant assistance," Trump wrote on Truth Social. After pledging U.S. Navy escorts for tankers through the strait drew criticism as unrealistic, he publicly called on allies and China to contribute. This marks Trump's first explicit request for third countries beyond Israel to join military operations against Iran.
South Korea now faces difficult choices. Closer alignment with the United States offers alliance benefits, but formal participation in military operations risks damaging relations with Iran. The Moon Jae-in administration faced a similar dilemma in 2020 when U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, opting to deploy the Cheonghae Unit independently rather than directly joining the U.S.-led International Maritime Security Construct.