South Korea's hopes of advancing to the World Baseball Classic (WBC) quarterfinals are in jeopardy after a painful loss to Taiwan in a must-win game.
South Korea fell 4-5 to Taiwan in a 10-inning tiebreaker at Tokyo Dome, Japan, on March 8 during the 2026 WBC Pool C round-robin play.
With a 1-2 record, South Korea now faces a do-or-die situation in their final pool game against Australia at 7 p.m. on March 9 at the same venue, where they must calculate various scenarios to keep their quarterfinal dreams alive.
The top two teams from the first round advance to the quarterfinals. Following the Taiwan game, Japan and Australia share first place with two wins each, while Taiwan sits third and South Korea fourth. Czech Republic has been eliminated with three losses.
If Australia defeats Japan (2 wins) in today's 7 p.m. game, South Korea will be eliminated from the pool stage.
Should Australia lose to Japan, the scenarios become more complex. If South Korea beats Australia on March 9, Korea, Australia, and Taiwan would be tied at 2-2. Tournament tiebreaker rules follow this order: head-to-head record, fewest runs allowed, fewest earned runs allowed, batting average, and finally a draw. In a three-way tie, head-to-head records become irrelevant, so fewest runs allowed determines the rankings. Pool standing will be determined by comparing runs allowed divided by outs recorded in games among the three teams.
Australia has allowed zero runs in nine innings. Taiwan has surrendered seven runs (six earned) in 19 innings, while South Korea has given up five runs (four earned) in 10 innings. Currently, South Korea is in the most disadvantageous position among the three nations.
However, a slim chance remains. If South Korea defeats Australia by five or more runs without going to extra innings, they can leapfrog both Australia and Taiwan to secure a quarterfinal berth.
