① Is There an Iranian Counterpart to Sit at the Table?
U.S. eyes Ghalibaf as negotiating partner
Hardliner backlash within Iran remains uncertain
② Nuclear Issue Neither Side Can Concede
Trump demands "ban on uranium enrichment"
Iran demands "reparations and non-interference"
③ Ground Troops: Buying Time for Deployment?
"2,200 Marines depart for Middle East"
Speculation over diverting attention to seize Kharg Island
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Speculation emerged on Wednesday that the United States, which halted the largest clash in the Iran war, could hold face-to-face negotiations with Iran in Pakistan as early as this week. Israeli media, citing officials, reported that the U.S. has set April 9 as its target date for ending the war. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering attending Israel's Independence Day celebrations at the end of next month. Some suggest his visit may be aimed at receiving the Israel Prize, the country's highest civilian honor.
However, even if representatives from both sides sit at the negotiating table, narrowing their differences is expected to be difficult. It remains unclear who holds real authority on the Iranian side to reach a deal with President Trump's team. The negotiating positions are far apart, and the U.S. is also preparing to deploy ground forces, raising the possibility that talks could collapse. Here are the three major obstacles amid the movement to resume U.S.-Iran negotiations.
① Is There a Counterpart to Sign the Deal?
First, it is uncertain whether negotiations can proceed smoothly, as it remains unclear who in Iran holds full negotiating authority. Politico, the U.S. political news outlet, reported that "within the Trump administration, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is being considered as a likely negotiating partner and as Iran's next leader after a ceasefire."
However, it is uncertain whether Ghalibaf, a hardliner who built his career in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), will take a flexible stance toward the U.S. or whether hardliners within Iran will accept it. Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), noted, "Ghalibaf is ambitious and pragmatic, but he is devoted to the Iranian system, so the likelihood of him making concessions to the U.S. is slim."
Meanwhile, Israeli outlet Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the two-day contact between the U.S. and Iran over the past weekend had the consent of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's Supreme Leader.
However, when reports emerged of his contact with the U.S., Ghalibaf dismissed them, saying, "There were no negotiations with the U.S. This is fake news." Iran International, an Iranian opposition media outlet, pointed out that "Ghalibaf denied the negotiation reports, but that doesn't make the problem go away." The concern is that distrust could emerge within the Iranian regime, with questions such as whether Ghalibaf is lying. Analysts say this is part of President Trump's strategy to sow division among both lower-ranking Iranian soldiers fighting on the front lines and the collective supreme leadership.
The British daily The Guardian noted that Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has died, and President Masoud Pezeshkian, who belongs to the pro-negotiation camp, lacks military support — leaving no clear negotiating representative. On Thursday, Iran announced the appointment of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as Larijani's successor. Zolghadr, a former IRGC commander, is expected to pursue more hardline policies than Larijani, who was a seasoned politician.
② The Nuclear Issue — Impossible to Concede
Some agreement may be possible in economic areas such as unfreezing Iranian assets, but the gap on the nuclear issue remains vast. President Trump told reporters at a Florida airport on Wednesday, "We've agreed with Iran on about 15 points," adding, "They've agreed they won't have nuclear weapons." He also stressed, "We want a ban on uranium enrichment and the removal of enriched uranium."
Before this war, Iran had reportedly agreed to suspend some nuclear enrichment, but Israel took a hardline stance, claiming Iran could immediately produce a nuclear bomb with its 60%-enriched uranium and demanding its removal — resulting in no agreement.
In addition, the U.S. has reportedly prepared demands including: a five-year halt to missile development; closure of nuclear facilities; limiting missile stockpiles to fewer than 1,000; ending support for pro-Iranian armed groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah; and allowing monitoring of centrifuge manufacturing processes.
On the other hand, Mohsen Rezaei, a hardline military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader and former IRGC figure, said in an interview with Iranian broadcaster on Wednesday, "The war will continue until there are reparations for war damages, lifting of economic sanctions, and guarantees of non-interference in internal affairs."
③ Ground Troop Deployment During Negotiations
Iran has demanded a ceasefire as the first condition for peace talks, but the U.S. sending ground forces to the Middle East is also an obstacle to negotiations. Some observers speculate the U.S. may be buying time until ground troops arrive in the region and could then attempt to deploy them to seize Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing multiple sources, reported that the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli carrying 2,200 troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, along with amphibious transport docks USS San Diego and USS New Orleans, are expected to arrive in the Middle East by March 27 — the new negotiation deadline set by President Trump. The New York Times (NYT) also reported that the Department of Defense (War Department) is considering deploying an additional 3,000 airborne troops specialized in rapid response to the Iran war.
