PPP Nomination Conflict Drives Surge in Online Mentions; Oh Se-hoon at Center of Controversy

The People Power Party (PPP) is embroiled in turmoil over whether Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon will run in the 9th nationwide local elections. Despite party leadership and floor members declaring a "total commitment to unity," Oh has refused to register as a Seoul mayoral candidate, citing the lack of substantive policy changes.

The central party's nomination management committee extended the application deadline by one day to await Oh's decision, but he again postponed his registration. As the standoff between PPP leader Jang Dong-hyuk and Mayor Oh continues, Nomination Management Committee Chairman Lee Jung-hyun's sudden resignation has turned the party's local election preparations into a quagmire.

The Seoul Economic Daily examined public sentiment surrounding the PPP's local election conflict through online mention data.

'Local Election' Associated Terms: 'PPP' Rises, 'Democratic Party' Falls

On March 15, the Seoul Economic Daily analyzed associated terms for "People Power Party" across online communities, Instagram, and blogs during the first and second weeks of March (through the 13th) using "SomeTrend," a big data analysis tool for social network text. Among various associated terms, mentions of "local election" increased 23.94% from 2,877 last week to 3,566 this week. The mention ranking rose from 9th to 6th place.

Conversely, when searching "local election," mentions of "People Power Party" also increased 23.98%, jumping four places from 6th to 2nd in the rankings. This contrasts with "Democratic Party," whose ranking dropped from 2nd to 4th. "Democratic Party of Korea" also fell three places from 9th to 12th during the same period.

Public interest in local elections surged dramatically within a week, with the PPP—struggling with internal conflicts over nominations—generating more buzz than the Democratic Party of Korea.

'Oh Se-hoon' Surges as 'Nomination' Associated Term—Rising 27 Places in One Week

When searching "Oh Se-hoon," who has emerged as a key variable in PPP nominations, the ranking for "nomination" among associated terms jumped from 15th in the first week of March to 8th in the second week. Conversely, when searching "nomination," "Oh Se-hoon" rose sharply from 34th to 7th place.

Mentions of Seoul Mayor Oh spiked twice this month—on the 8th and 12th. Specifically, mentions of Mayor Oh increased from 502 on the 7th to 2,215 on the 8th. After declining to 1,081 on the 11th, they surged again to 1,343 the following day.

The first spike on the 8th coincided with the PPP's deadline for metropolitan governor candidate applications. The second peak on the 12th came when Mayor Oh announced he would refuse to apply for nomination, despite the committee's one-day extension.

On March 13th, the day after Oh's announcement, PPP Nomination Management Committee Chairman Lee Jung-hyun abruptly resigned. Despite party leadership's efforts to persuade him to return, Lee reportedly remains firm in his decision.

At the time of his resignation, Lee stated, "I could no longer pursue the direction I had envisioned." However, political observers interpret Lee's resignation as a protest against Mayor Oh's two refusals to apply for nomination, which effectively undermined the system—particularly given Lee's previous advocacy for nominations without preferential treatment for incumbent local government heads.

Even after Lee's departure, Mayor Oh has made clear he will not apply for nomination immediately. For the time being, the PPP's Seoul mayoral preliminary candidate field will likely feature competition among three candidates: former Innovation Committee Chair Yoon Hee-sook, Seoul Metropolitan Party Seongbuk-eul District Committee Chair Lee Sang-gyu, and INPAC Korea CEO Lee Seung-hyun.

'Oh Se-hoon' Consumes PPP Local Election Issues—Campaign Prospects Dim If Trend Continues

Since March, when PPP nomination decisions began emerging in succession, mention trends for "People Power Party" and "nomination" have shown nearly identical patterns of rises and falls. Notably, since March 5th when PPP metropolitan government nominations began, mention trends for "Oh Se-hoon" have also tracked closely with "People Power Party" and "nomination."

This indicates that unlike the Democratic Party, where abundant candidates have diversified issues, PPP nomination coverage has converged entirely on variables related to Mayor Oh. If this trend continues, concerns are mounting that meaningful policy and platform competition with the Democratic Party may fail to materialize during the actual campaign.

Analysts point out that the PPP—now cornered as support rates have even flipped in favor of the Democratic Party in the traditionally conservative Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) region, known as "the heart of conservatism"—must quickly consolidate its candidate field and establish a policy competition framework to regain campaign initiative.

According to a National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted March 9-11 by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research among 1,002 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, the Democratic Party of Korea secured 29% support in the TK region, leading the PPP by 4 percentage points.

In the previous survey, both parties were tied at 28% in the region. However, with the reversal, the Democratic Party now leads the PPP in all regions for the first time in two weeks.

The NBS survey was conducted via telephone interviews using mobile virtual numbers (100%), with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The response rate was 17.3%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee website.