Analysis suggests that the global semiconductor industry expansion will continue at least until the first half of next year due to supply shortages relative to demand. Forecasts also indicate that the Middle East situation will have limited impact on the semiconductor industry.
The Bank of Korea released a report titled "Assessment of the Sustainability of Global Semiconductor Industry Expansion" on the 12th, making these observations.
The recent semiconductor market is showing unprecedented strength, with demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and general-purpose DRAM surging more than ever due to expanded artificial intelligence (AI) investment. The Bank of Korea particularly noted that supply is increasing slowly relative to demand due to technical difficulties, and expects the expansion to continue for the time being.
However, the Bank of Korea identified five variables that could affect the semiconductor market. On the demand side: △profitability of AI investment △whether big tech companies can continuously secure funding △progress in technical efficiency of AI models. On the supply side: △the pace of memory manufacturers' capacity expansion △the speed of Chinese companies catching up.
The Bank of Korea predicted that "from next year onward, when market interest is expected to shift to actual monetization possibilities, it will be difficult to expand AI infrastructure investment at the same pace as last year and this year." It also observed that there is a possibility of actual investment execution slowing down as big tech companies' cash reserves are depleted.
Additionally, analysis suggests that if Chinese memory companies, estimated to be about four years behind domestic firms, pursue aggressive capacity expansion in the future, this could partially affect the semiconductor industry expansion.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea stated that the impact of the Middle East war on the semiconductor market is judged to be limited at this stage. This is because despite concerns about rising oil prices and interest rates and weakening global growth, there are no signs of data center construction plans being postponed or memory supply being delayed.
The Bank of Korea explained, "While there are concerns about potential supply disruptions of materials and equipment from the Middle East, there are no clear signs yet of this leading to semiconductor production disruptions," adding that "major materials such as bromine and helium are understood to have several months' worth of inventory secured."