The KOSPI, long trapped in the shadow of the "Korea Discount," is stepping into uncharted territory as it renews record highs. The benchmark has posted the top gain among major global stock indexes this year, drawing attention for its commanding performance. A foreign brokerage has even floated a forecast of KOSPI reaching 9,000.
This week's Sunday Money Cafe examines the domestic stock market's relentless rally over the past week, during which the index has repeatedly set new records, and looks into KOSPI outlooks from both domestic and overseas brokerages.
KOSPI at Record Highs... Four Straight Sessions of Gains
According to the Korea Exchange on Tuesday, the KOSPI closed Wednesday at 7,498.00, up 7.95 points, or 0.11%, from the previous session. The index has risen for four consecutive sessions, from 6,936.99 on the 4th to 7,384.56 on the 6th, 7,490.05 on the 7th, and 7,498.00 on the 8th, bringing it just below the 7,500 threshold.
The driving forces behind the rally have been the two major semiconductor stocks, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS). On Wednesday, SK hynix rose 1.93% from the previous session to close at a record high of 1,686,000 won, achieving the "1.68M hynix" milestone. On the same day, Samsung Electronics ended slightly lower, down 1.10%, but earned the "270K Samsung" title based on its Tuesday closing price of 271,500 won.
Expectations for "Samsung-hynix" remain high in the brokerage community. SK Securities, in a report on the 7th, raised its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to 500,000 won and 3,000,000 won, respectively. It also lifted its 2026 operating profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix by 3% and 4% to 338 trillion won and 262 trillion won, respectively. "Even after the rally, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are trading at 12-month forward P/E ratios of 6.0 and 5.2, respectively," SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee said, adding that there is still room for further gains.
On the supply-demand side, overwhelming buying from individual investors has underpinned the market's rise. On Wednesday, individuals net-purchased 3.97 trillion won worth of shares on the KOSPI. Over the 7th and 8th combined, individual net buying reached 9.97 trillion won. Foreign investors, meanwhile, sold 5.60 trillion won on the 8th, focusing on profit-taking.
As interest in the stock market grows, it is now common knowledge among investors that the rally is being led by semiconductor names. The focus has now shifted to when the upward trend will end.
KOSPI 9,000 Forecast Emerges... Will Rotation Follow?
KOSPI forecasts from domestic and overseas brokerages vary. However, the common thread in recent projections is that upside remains. Brokerages have been competing to raise their KOSPI targets. According to foreign media, global investment bank Goldman Sachs, in a report on the 6th, named South Korea its "most preferred market" in Asia and raised its KOSPI target to 9,000. Citigroup also lifted its KOSPI target to 8,500 in a report on the 7th, citing expectations for the semiconductor cycle.
Going a step further, some expect the "semiconductor tailwind" to spread to other stocks, ushering in a full-scale rotation. Whether this can dispel concerns about concentration in chip stocks is drawing attention. Samsung Securities, in a report on the 8th, said, "While the overarching narrative of AI-driven growth will remain intact, the concentration will ease, with warmth spreading to the periphery." The brokerage added, "Smart money is likely to move toward broad AI beneficiaries, including semiconductor equipment and materials, alternative energy, and physical AI. While the index's upward momentum may slow somewhat, the market's overall qualitative strength and downside rigidity are likely to be reinforced."
