Global average sea surface temperatures in March reached the second-highest level ever recorded for the month, prompting warnings about a potential El Niño return and extreme weather events.
According to AFP on Thursday, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that global average sea surface temperatures in March reached 20.97 degrees Celsius. This marks the second-highest March reading on record, following 2024. The institute suggested that such rising ocean temperatures could signal the onset of El Niño. Major climate monitoring organizations, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), have consistently raised the possibility of an El Niño recurrence this year.
El Niño is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise abnormally above normal levels, disrupting atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and affecting global climate. When it occurs, extreme weather such as heatwaves and droughts or heavy rainfall and floods can emerge depending on the region. While El Niño and its counterpart La Niña cycle periodically, analysts note that climate change has been intensifying their strength and impact in recent years. Scientists believe that when oceans absorb excessive heat, atmospheric instability increases, leading to more frequent and intense storms, heavy rainfall, heatwaves, and droughts.
The El Niño event that lasted from 2023 to 2024 was rated the fifth strongest on record. During this period, global average temperatures ranked as the second-highest ever in 2023 and reached a record high in 2024. Concerns are mounting that climate change itself is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, regardless of El Niño's presence. In March this year, the global surface average temperature was approximately 1.48 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, marking the fourth-highest March temperature since records began.
Regionally, most of Europe experienced above-average temperatures, while prolonged heatwaves continued in the western United States. Above-average temperatures were also observed in the Arctic, Russia, and parts of Antarctica, with Arctic sea ice extent shrinking to its lowest March level ever recorded. "Each data point is alarming on its own, but together they reveal a bigger picture of a climate system under increasingly severe and sustained pressure," said Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S.