70% of Trump Supporters Back Iran Airstrikes; Ground Troops Remain Political Gamble

President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum threatening to devastate Iran's energy facilities unless Tehran opens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran has vowed retaliation, raising concerns of escalating conflict.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz, directly linked to oil prices, has emerged as the central objective of this war. Attention is focused on whether Trump will take the major political gamble of deploying ground troops.

Iran appears unlikely to comply with Trump's ultimatum. On the 22nd (local time), an Iranian military spokesman warned: "If fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, all energy, IT, and desalination infrastructure in the region owned by the United States and its regime will be targeted."

Trump's Inner Circle Suggests "Seize Kharg Island"

The Washington Post, citing U.S. and Israeli security officials, reported that "the likelihood of a battle over control of the Strait of Hormuz and key energy facilities is growing as the final phase of this war."

According to the Post, 4,500 U.S. Navy and Marine personnel are heading to the Middle East. This includes infantry battalion landing teams supported by helicopters, F-35 fighters, and armored amphibious vehicles. The Post cited Pentagon officials saying deployment of the San Diego-based 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is also being expedited.

If ground forces are deployed, their mission would likely involve eliminating Iranian forces along the coast near Kharg Island—which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports—and the Strait of Hormuz. Securing the strait would stabilize oil prices and significantly ease the burden of the Iran conflict for Trump.

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), a close Trump ally who advised on the Iran strikes, told Fox News: "I'm going to tell President Trump, 'Hold on for a few more weeks. Seize Kharg Island, which has all the resources needed for oil production. Let this regime slowly collapse.'" Graham recently said he had "never seen President Trump so angry" after Europe refused to send warships.

70% of Trump Voters Support Airstrikes, but Ground Troops? "Oh, No"

The challenge is that ordinary Americans and Republicans strongly oppose ground troop deployment. A Politico/PublicFirst poll conducted January 13-18 and released on the 19th found 70% of 2024 Trump voters support airstrikes on Iran. While general American public opinion on attacking Iran is unfavorable, Trump's base supports the strikes.

Ground troops are a different matter. Politico White House Bureau Chief Dasha Burns said on a January 19 podcast: "When you talk to Republicans, everyone says, 'Oh, no, no, no' to ground troops."

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted January 17-19 found only 7% support a large-scale ground invasion. In the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, more than 7,000 U.S. troops died and over 50,000 were wounded, with many suffering severe post-traumatic stress disorder.

If Trump decides to deploy ground forces, he would likely pursue rapid seizure of the strait. Success or failure would generate significant political repercussions either way.

United Airlines: "$100 Oil Through Next Year, Route Cuts Coming"

High oil prices continue to ripple through the economy. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in an internal memo on the 19th that the airline is reducing some routes due to high fuel costs and expects oil prices to remain above $100 per barrel through next year.