'Regime Change' Quietly Drops Off Trump's Military Objectives in Iran

- 'Regime change' absent from Trump's five military objectives

- Ground forces numerically outmatched... focus likely limited to reopening strait

- No popular uprising... U.S.-China summit pushed past May

- "Power plants obliterated"... unconditional surrender the best exit

- No major indicators this week; Middle East war again drives markets

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New York markets are expected to swing again this week based on developments in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, and attention is turning to the notable absence of "regime change" from President Donald Trump's stated military objectives. The likelihood of ground operations is rising as U.S. Marines and airborne troops arrive in the Middle East, but the diplomatic consensus is that current troop levels fall far short of what would be needed to topple the Iranian government. Depending on Trump's resolve, the U.S. could achieve the military goals it has currently laid out within a month or two. The question is what comes next. If the U.S. ends the war after merely neutralizing Iran's missile capabilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the diplomatic and economic gains from this conflict would be limited. Iran's apex of power has simply shifted from former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei to his second son, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, while the theocratic dictatorship established in 1979 and the regional cell networks controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would remain intact. China, which maintained close ties with Iran, would suffer little damage, and Russia would actually benefit from relaxed oil export sanctions and bought time in the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, surging global oil prices would have inflicted deep wounds on global financial and trade markets. A war that fizzled out would hardly help the Republican Party in the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. With no one knowing what exit strategy Trump has prepared, there are few foreseeable scenarios for how the war ends. How much uncertainty over the Iran war lifts this week will again be the biggest factor for financial markets.

'Regime Change' Quietly Removed from Military Objectives... Ground Forces Also Insufficient for Toppling Government

According to U.S. online outlet Axios, CBS, and Reuters on the 20th (local time), approximately 2,200 Marines from a Marine Expeditionary Unit and three warships departed from California earlier last week. This is the second deployment wave, following approximately 2,500 troops from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), previously stationed in Okinawa, Japan, who had already departed for the Middle East. The Trump administration also began preparations to deploy units from the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the region. While the Marines are an independent military branch administratively under the Navy, the Airborne Division falls under the Army. Foreign media outlets projected that these forces would seize Kharg Island — the strategic chokepoint handling 90% of Iran's oil exports — and carry out operations to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass. Approximately 50,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed in the Middle East.

Trump, who played the ground deployment card previously held in reserve as a last resort, sent contradictory messages of a "scorched-earth resolve" and "scaling back military action," sowing confusion in financial markets. His approach has broadly been a two-track communication strategy: applying military pressure on Iran while signaling to markets that he does not intend to drag out the war.

Most notably, the military objectives Trump laid out deserve close scrutiny. On the 20th, as oil prices surged and stock prices plunged, Trump posted on his social network Truth Social that "we are looking at ways to wind down the massive military effort against Iran's terrorist regime," listing five operational objectives: ▲ neutralizing Iran's missile capabilities and launchers, ▲ destroying its defense industrial base, ▲ neutralizing Iran's navy and air force including air defense weapons, ▲ completely blocking Iran's nuclear capabilities while maintaining a swift and powerful U.S. response posture, and ▲ providing the highest level of protection for Middle East allies. There was no objective related to regime change or toppling the government. Among these, ▲ neutralizing Iran's missile capabilities and launchers and ▲ neutralizing Iran's navy and air force including air defense weapons are items Trump himself has already claimed to have achieved.

This represents a significant departure from the war aims Trump emphasized at the outset. On the day hostilities began last month on the 28th, Trump posted a video on Truth Social addressing the Iranian people, urging them to "take over your government when we're done." On the 5th of this month, in a phone interview with Axios, he said Khamenei's son "is unacceptable" and argued that "I should be directly involved in the appointment, like Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodríguez." He also predicted that if Iran installed a hardline figure as its leader, the U.S. would have to fight another war with Iran within five years.

Trump's shift appears to have been influenced by a war that has not unfolded as originally envisioned. The U.S. launched the war with a strategy of bolstering anti-government protests in Iran that had begun in the capital Tehran on December 28 last year, but in practice produced no synergy with the protesters. Moreover, the expectation that the war could be ended swiftly by eliminating a handful of leaders — as with the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — proved largely wrong. Iranian public opinion has shifted further toward hardline resistance, and there are no clear signs yet that the regime is on the verge of collapse.

Additionally, underestimating the possibility of a Strait of Hormuz blockade proved a critical flaw in the operation. International oil prices surged far more than the White House expected, and allied nations including European countries stood back from providing flanking support. This ultimately led to the decision to deploy additional ground troops, accepting the prospect of a costly war of attrition.

"Power Plants Obliterated If Strait Not Opened Within 48 Hours"... U.S.-China Summit Pushed Past May

The significant gap between the timing of aircraft carrier strike group movements needed for Iran airstrikes and the movement of Marine ground forces suggests Trump did not originally envision a ground war. This has extended the overall war timeline and deepened financial market turmoil. Furthermore, the IRGC, which is leading the resistance, numbers approximately 200,000, and the Basij militia under their control numbers roughly 600,000. Even accounting for a collapsed leadership structure and significantly inferior conventional capabilities, these numbers are too large for current U.S. troop levels to subdue. Even if U.S. and Israeli forces committed fully to a ground campaign, completely toppling the Iranian regime could prove overwhelming. The New York Times also reported on the 21st that "Trump said he is considering ways to gradually scale back operations in Iran, but many of his original war objectives remain unachieved."

In this context, Trump warned on Truth Social on the 21st: "If Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz without any threat within 48 hours from now, the United States will attack and obliterate Iran's various power plants, starting with the largest one." On the same day, Trump fired back at the NYT article on Truth Social, saying, "The United States wiped Iran off the map and yet their lousy analyst says I didn't achieve my goals," adding, "I achieved the goals weeks ahead of schedule."

The gap between Trump's words and reality is also evident in the postponement of his China visit, originally scheduled from the 31st of this month through the 2nd of next month, by more than a month. U.S. political outlet Politico reported on the 21st that the Trump administration decided to suspend discussions on a U.S.-China summit schedule until the Iran war concludes. Trump had said on the 16th that he "asked [China] for a delay of about a month," then three days later on the 19th said "the visit has been pushed back about a month and a half." This implied a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping no earlier than mid-May.

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir also said in a video statement on the 21st that military operations against Iran have reached the halfway point of the overall timeline. Chief of Staff Zamir said, "In about a week,