Soaring international jet fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict are hitting airfares hard. With major global airlines announcing successive fare increases and fuel surcharges expected to rise sharply, overseas travelers face growing financial burdens.
Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) announced on Monday that it would temporarily adjust ticket prices, citing European jet fuel prices reaching their highest levels since 2022 due to global supply disruptions, according to AFP. Australia's Qantas and Air New Zealand also formalized fare increase plans the same day, citing surging fuel costs.
Since war broke out between the United States, Israel, and Iran on March 28, effectively paralyzing Middle East air routes and airports, some airlines have more than doubled fares on certain routes to Europe and Southeast Asia.
Jet fuel accounts for 20-30% of total airline operating costs. Prices rise more steeply than crude oil because premiums are added at each stage of refining, storage, and transportation. According to British commodities data firm Argus, the Northwest European jet fuel premium over Brent crude hit a record high of $97 per barrel (approximately 142,900 won).
Fuel surcharges, which are added separately to airfares, also appear set for sharp increases. Hong Kong Airlines decided to raise fuel surcharges by up to 35.2% starting April 12. Fuel surcharges are fees airlines add to fares to offset losses when average jet fuel prices (Singapore MOPS) exceed certain thresholds.
The surge in jet fuel prices is evident in the numbers. According to industry sources, jet fuel prices jumped approximately 72% in a single day to $225.44 per barrel (approximately 332,000 won) on April 4. Compared to $93.45 per barrel (approximately 138,000 won) on March 27—just before the U.S. airstrikes on Iran—prices have more than doubled in just over ten days.
April fuel surcharges will be determined based on average jet fuel prices from March 16 to April 15. Industry observers expect the April average to exceed $160 per barrel (approximately 380 cents per gallon) once the past week's surge is factored in.
In that case, fuel surcharges for Korean Air and Asiana Airlines' Incheon-Los Angeles route, currently at 78,600-79,500 won, could soar to as much as 210,000 won. Major airlines are scheduled to finalize and announce April fuel surcharges on April 16. Travel industry experts advise consumers to monitor the situation this month or after May before purchasing tickets.
The consensus view is that international oil prices hinge on developments in the Middle East. Whether the conflict escalates and the security of passage through the Strait of Hormuz are cited as key variables.
Since a significant portion of crude oil exports pass through the strait, some forecasts suggest Brent crude could jump again to over $120 per barrel if a blockade or intensified conflict occurs.