The expiration of patents on semaglutide, the active ingredient in obesity drug Wegovy, has triggered a wave of ultra-cheap generics from India priced at one-eighth of the original, drawing attention to potential disruptions in the global obesity treatment market.
According to Bloomberg, Reuters and The New York Times on May 21, Indian pharmaceutical companies have been launching generics in quick succession following the patent expiration.
Eris Lifesciences introduced an injectable generic under its diabetes brand "Sunday," while Dr. Reddy's Laboratories joined the competition with "Obeda."
The pricing is aggressive. Eris's product costs 1,290 rupees (approximately $15) per month at the lowest dose (2mg), just 12% of the original Wegovy price. Industry observers project prices could fall to around $15 monthly as competition intensifies. With Wegovy's highest dose currently priced at $349 per month in the United States, analysts describe this as a near "price collapse."
Approximately 42 Indian pharmaceutical companies are expected to launch more than 50 generic brands this year alone. Indian drugmakers, competitive in low-cost generic production, are expected to price their products at least 50-60% below the original.
The patent expiration signals global expansion. Key semaglutide patents are set to expire sequentially by year-end in 10 major countries including China, Brazil, Canada and South Africa. This raises the possibility of mass exports of generics produced in India and China to countries without patent protection.
Market potential is substantial. India and China alone have an estimated 800 million overweight or obese adults and more than 360 million adults with diabetes. Analysts expect demand to surge as prices fall, given that high costs have limited treatment access.
Changes are already emerging on the ground. An endocrinologist in Mumbai projected that obesity treatment patients could increase from the current 70-80 to 200 following the generic launches. Lower prices are directly translating to expanded patient access.
Meanwhile, original developer Novo Nordisk of Denmark faces growing pressure. The company has pursued patent defense litigation in India, China and Brazil, and has responded with price cuts in some markets. However, critics note that even in India, Wegovy's high-dose price remains at approximately $180 per month, limiting competitiveness.
Regional situations vary. In the United States and Europe, extended patent protection is expected to delay generic launches until the early 2030s. South Korea's patent protection extends until 2028. India, lacking such protections, is seeing rapid generic market growth.
Future dynamics depend on competitive landscape. Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (Zepbound), considered Wegovy's main rival, still faces supply constraints and retains patent protection for approximately 10 more years. Short-term analysis suggests Wegovy generics could rapidly capture market share.
