New York crude oil prices surged more than 12% in a single day, breaking through the $90 per barrel mark. The spike follows a sharp decline in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor, as U.S. military operations against Iran intensified. With geopolitical risks now disrupting real-economy supply chains, tensions are mounting across South Korea's energy-dependent economy. Concerns are growing that ripple effects will extend beyond rising logistics costs and refining margins to hit semiconductor and automotive exports.
On April 6 local time, West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery closed at $90.90 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $9.89 or 12.21% from the previous session. The weekly gain of 35.63% marks the largest since records began in 1983.
Strait Blocked by 'Epic Fury' Operation; $150 Oil Forecasts Emerge
Military tensions in the Middle East remain the key driver of surging prices. U.S. Central Command announced it had destroyed 43 Iranian vessels and struck more than 3,000 military targets within a week of launching Operation Epic Fury. Despite the U.S. Navy's pledge to escort tankers, market anxiety persists. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations, the number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz plunged from 50 on March 28 to zero as of April 3.
Crude supply itself shows signs of tightening. Kuwait and Iraq have begun partial production cuts at some oil fields. Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that if the shipping blockade continues for two to three weeks, oil prices could reach $150 per barrel, dealing a blow to global economic growth.
Shipping Rates and Insurance Premiums Soar; Korean Logistics and Petrochemicals on Alert
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 13.9% of South Korea's crude oil imports. If transit restrictions extend beyond one month, an estimated 45 crude oil shipments and 8 LNG shipments could face delays domestically. According to recent National Assembly briefing materials, 40 Korean vessels are currently stranded near the strait, including seven tankers carrying 2 million barrels of oil—equivalent to one day's domestic consumption.
Even alternative routes would significantly increase logistics costs. Shipping times from the Middle East to Korea could extend from 25 days to as long as 60 days. The Very Large Crude Carrier freight index has jumped 3.3 times compared to pre-conflict levels, while war-risk insurance premiums have surged up to 12 times above peacetime rates. This directly undermines cost competitiveness for Korean refiners and petrochemical companies that source more than 30% of their naphtha imports from the Middle East.
K-Semiconductor Demand and Auto Sales Face Headwinds
A prolonged crisis is casting a shadow over Korea's high-tech export sector. The Middle East, led by the UAE, has emerged as a global AI infrastructure hub, with 7-8 gigawatts of data center capacity under development. If major projects including the 30 trillion won UAE Stargate data center face construction delays due to the conflict, demand for high-value memory chips from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could weaken. The region also supplies 90% of helium used in semiconductor manufacturing, representing another potential supply chain vulnerability.
The automotive industry is monitoring the situation closely. According to global investment bank Bernstein, Hyundai Motor holds a 10% share of the Middle East auto market, trailing only Toyota at 17%. If high oil prices and war risks dampen local consumer sentiment, export volume declines appear inevitable.
Joo Won, head of economic research at Hyundai Research Institute, advised: "Companies must establish preemptive emergency management systems to prepare for deteriorating profitability. For raw materials that account for a large share of production, this is the time to actively implement hedging strategies using futures markets to diversify price volatility risks."