Qatar warned that a U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could force all Gulf energy exporters to halt production within weeks, sending oil prices soaring to $150 per barrel.
Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's energy minister, told the Financial Times on Sunday that "a Middle East war could bring down the global economy." He added that "everyone who has not yet declared force majeure will do so within days, and all Gulf exporters will declare force majeure."
Force majeure clauses exempt parties from contractual obligations or allow delays when uncontrollable events such as wars or natural disasters occur.
Brent crude rose to $87.6 per barrel in European morning trading, reaching its highest level since the Iran war began. Al-Kaabi forecast that oil prices would surge to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and other commercial vessels can no longer pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil and gas shipments.
He also projected gas prices would climb to 117 euros per megawatt-hour, nearly four times pre-war levels. Even if the Middle East conflict ended immediately, restoring Qatar's energy supply could take weeks to months, al-Kaabi said.
Qatar, the world's second-largest liquefied natural gas producer, invoked force majeure and suspended supplies after Iranian drone attacks struck its largest LNG production facility.
Qatar accounts for 20% of global LNG production, with Asia as its primary market. "Qatar's gas exports to Europe are limited, but Europe will face significant difficulties if Asian buyers compete for supplies in the market," al-Kaabi said. "Disruptions to maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz will impact not only energy but many industrial sectors."