Concerns over South Korea's economic security are mounting as Middle East tensions spread rapidly following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Iran's retaliatory attacks. A prolonged Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's largest oil shipping route, could deal a direct blow to South Korea's energy import-dependent economy. However, domestic experts believe the blockade is unlikely to last long, as it would ultimately backfire on Iran itself.
According to foreign media reports on the 6th, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that more than 10 oil tankers in the strait caught fire on the 4th (local time), amid Iran's emphasis on its willingness to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Rep. Kim Young-bae of the Democratic Party of Korea, the ruling party's secretary on the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, said the previous day that seven tankers belonging to Korean companies are on standby, unable to pass through the strait due to the deteriorating situation.
A prolonged blockade would inflict massive damage on the Korean economy. South Korea imports approximately 70% of its crude oil and about 20% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East. Rising oil prices from a blockade would increase corporate production costs and worsen the trade balance.
However, domestic experts on international affairs and Iran believe Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not last long. They explain that Iran, with its economic structure heavily dependent on energy exports, cannot sustain a prolonged blockade.
Kim Yeol-soo, director of security strategy at the Korea Research Institute for Military Affairs, said, "Iran could achieve the effect of a strait blockade simply by using its approximately 5,000 mines without directly deploying warships." He added, "But this would effectively turn not only Gulf states but the entire world against them. The situation could escalate into a fifth Middle East war, which would be even worse for Iran."
Kim also noted, "Iran's economy is essentially dependent on selling oil. The longer they blockade the strait, the more their own oil exports get blocked. That would eliminate their ability to sustain the war itself, creating significant burden."
Yoo Dal-seung, a professor of Iranian studies, also analyzed, "Iran can use the Hormuz Strait blockade as a pressure card, but it would invite isolation and face various difficulties."
However, concerns remain that structural geopolitical tensions could persist long after the blockade ends. Ban Gil-joo, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, emphasized, "Even if Iran lifts the blockade, geopolitical tensions from this Middle East crisis will continue for an extended period, and anxiety over maritime routes will grow. The Navy and Coast Guard need to explore ways to ensure the long-term safety of civilian vessels."
Some analysts predict the Iran situation itself will enter a lull within about a month, as neither the U.S. nor Iran wants a prolonged conflict. Kim said, "Even if hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ali Khamenei, is selected as Iran's successor, Iran will likely be forced to engage in dialogue under pressure from Arab states like Qatar and Oman, as well as European countries. After the 40-day mourning period for Khamenei, they will likely show a somewhat softened stance."
He continued, "Considering that the U.S. concluded major operations in the Gulf War in 43 days and the Iraq War in 42 days, there is a high possibility the situation will enter a lull before April."
Professor Yoo also predicted, "The most likely scenario now is that the U.S. will naturally pursue an exit strategy, ease airstrikes, and allow the situation to calm down." He added, "Both starting and ending the war are in the hands of the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. government initially talked about 'regime change' as an operational objective, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio later presented goals such as 'eliminating ballistic missiles, the navy, and the nuclear program.' This is essentially a search for an exit strategy. In this case, Iran will also likely seek negotiations after the 40-day mourning period for the Supreme Leader."