Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, continuing their sharp rally, now account for more than one-third of the KOSPI's total market capitalization, solidifying their grip on the index's direction. As target prices for the semiconductor duo are being raised across the board, analysts calculate that KOSPI could break above 6,000 on their gains alone, even if other stocks remain flat.
According to the Korea Exchange on January 30, the KOSPI closed at 5,224.36, up 3.11 points (0.06%) from the previous day. During the session, buying momentum pushed the index to an intraday high of 5,321.58, breaking through the 5,300 level for the first time in history.
SK hynix (000660.KS) closed at 909,000 won, up 5.57%, achieving the "900,000-won hynix" milestone for the first time. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) closed at 160,500 won, down 0.12% from the previous session, but held the "160,000-won Samsung" level.
The KOSPI's total market capitalization stands at 4,346.8 trillion won. Based on common shares, Samsung Electronics accounts for 950.1 trillion won (21.9%) and SK hynix for 661.8 trillion won (15.2%), combining for 37.1%. Just a year ago, the two stocks' combined weighting remained in the 20% range, but the semiconductor rally and stagnation across most sectors except select preferred industries have rapidly increased the KOSPI's dependence on the "semiconductor duo."
This structural shift has amplified the two stocks' influence on the index. Even without significant gains in other KOSPI constituents, additional upside in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix alone could substantially expand the index's upward potential, analysts say.
Following fourth-quarter earnings conference calls, domestic and foreign securities firms have been raising target prices for both companies. CLSA set Samsung Electronics' target at 260,000 won, approximately 62% above the current price, and SK hynix at 1.25 million won, up about 37.5%. If these targets materialize, Samsung's market cap would increase by approximately 586 trillion won and SK hynix by approximately 283 trillion won, pushing KOSPI to around 6,270 on simple calculations, assuming other stocks remain unchanged. Citigroup set SK hynix's target at 1.4 million won.
Even by more conservative domestic brokerage estimates, the 6,000 level remains within reach. According to FnGuide, the consensus target is 210,000 won for Samsung Electronics and 1.15 million won for SK hynix, which would put KOSPI at approximately 5,840. SK Securities has set targets of 260,000 won for Samsung Electronics and 1.5 million won for SK hynix, which would make KOSPI 6,500 achievable.
"We expect earnings surprises in the first half, projecting Samsung Electronics' operating profit at 170 trillion won this year," said Kim Dong-won, analyst at KB Securities, raising his target price to 240,000 won. "SK hynix is discussing long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with supplier-led terms," said Kim Hyung-tae, analyst at Shinhan Investment Corp. "We forecast operating profit of 143.4 trillion won this year," he added, raising his target to 1.3 million won.
Typically, when Samsung Electronics and SK hynix rally, suppliers along with SK Square, power equipment, and securities stocks rise together, while other preferred sectors such as defense and shipbuilding provide additional support. This explains why analysts believe KOSPI could easily reach 6,000 if the semiconductor-led rally continues.
However, supply-demand dynamics remain a concern. On this day, retail investors bought a massive 2.3 trillion won in KOSPI stocks, while foreign investors sold a combined 2.19 trillion won—1.97 trillion won in KOSPI and 218.4 billion won in KOSDAQ—the largest outflow since November 28 last year.
"As the market grows, both the scale of foreign profit-taking and the retail funds absorbing it increase together," said Lee Jin-woo, head of Meritz Securities Research Center. "It's natural for the two leading companies' annual earnings estimates to drive the market. The sustainability of the semiconductor cycle and whether rotation into other sectors occurs will be the key variables for KOSPI breaking through 6,000."