Global Asset Managers Say US Tech Stocks Not Overvalued, Different From Dotcom Bubble

Amid ongoing debate over an artificial intelligence bubble, major global asset managers predict global equity markets will likely remain strong next year. Expectations are also growing that the rally centered on US technology stocks could expand to Asian and European markets.

According to a Bloomberg survey of 37 global asset managers across the US, Europe, and Asia released Saturday, 30 firms representing 81% of respondents said they maintain a risk-on view for equity markets next year. Only four firms gave a mixed outlook, while just three expressed risk-off views. The prevailing judgment is that solid global growth, AI technology advancement, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will support stock market gains.

"Policy expectations are reinforcing risk appetite," said Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "We are maintaining an overweight strategy on equities and credit assets."

David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, said, "The current market is maintaining a clear upward trend and this is not a contrarian investment environment."

Eighty-five percent of surveyed asset managers said valuations of major AI stocks including the Magnificent Seven are not excessively high, despite warnings from some experts that the surge in AI technology stocks resembles conditions just before the 2000 dotcom bubble. Bloomberg noted that the price-to-earnings ratio of US technology stocks remains only slightly above the 10-year average, and major companies are posting earnings significantly exceeding market expectations.

"Technology companies' earnings are substantially exceeding expectations, so it cannot be definitively called a bubble," said Anwiti Bahuguna, co-chief investment officer at Northern Trust.

The prevailing view is that the bull market will continue in regions outside the US as well. Andrew Heiskell, strategist at Wellington Management, said, "Earnings momentum is strengthening in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan," adding, "In 2026, earnings recovery will become visible across Europe and emerging markets."

Assessments suggest that the global re-rating trend for the Korean stock market may continue. Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, co-chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said, "Korean equities were meaningfully re-rated this year," adding, "In 2026, there is similar re-rating potential in the Indian market."

Meanwhile, the global asset management industry identifies the Trump administration's tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and recession possibilities as key risk factors for next year's markets. However, most fund managers assess that these risks are not at a level that would shake the bullish trend in global markets, reflecting caution against excessive pessimism.