US Diplomatic Influence Drops to Third in Asia as China Hits Record High

China's influence in Asia is expanding rapidly, narrowing the gap with the United States to what experts now call "competitor level," according to a new report.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported Sunday that the United States and China ranked first and second with scores of 80.6 and 73.7, respectively, in the Lowy Institute's 2025 Asia Power Index. While the rankings remain unchanged from last year, the gap between the two nations narrowed by more than 2 points to the smallest margin since 2020.

The US overall score fell 1.2 points from the previous year to its lowest level since the survey began in 2018. Although the US maintained first place in six of eight categories—economic capability, military capability, resilience, future resources, defense networks, and cultural influence—scores declined in all categories except cultural influence. Diplomatic influence dropped to third place, marking the lowest ranking among all categories for the US.

"The index fell 2.4 points due to negative assessments of President Donald Trump's leadership in global and regional diplomatic policy," the Lowy Institute said.

China's overall score rose 1.0 point. The country ranked first in two categories—economic relationships and diplomatic influence—with its diplomatic influence score surging 4.3 points to the highest level in the survey's history. In military capability, China ranked second behind the US, but the gap between the two nations narrowed significantly from 27.5 points in 2018 to 18.3 points this year.

The report concluded that the Trump administration's trade and diplomatic policies have contributed to weakening US influence in Asia and narrowing the US-China gap. US tariff policies have had negative effects in East Asia, with the impact expected to become more pronounced over the coming years, the report said.

The report described China as "the only peer competitor forming a bipolar system with the United States in Asia," noting that Beijing has solidified its image among regional countries as "a reliable partner opposing protectionism and unilateralism" amid policy uncertainty from the Trump administration.

"This index shows that China and the United States have already reached the position of equal powers," said Richard McGregor, senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute. "The decisive turning point was when China brought the US back to the negotiating table through rare earth export restrictions."

However, McGregor emphasized that "the idea that China can replace the United States in Asia is an illusion. Asia without America is inherently unstable," citing ongoing territorial disputes between China and neighboring countries and Beijing's insufficient capacity to fully replace the US in trade.

India, Japan, and Russia ranked third through fifth in this year's index, while Australia dropped one spot to sixth from fifth last year. South Korea maintained its seventh-place ranking from last year. South Korea's cultural influence score rose 2.3 points, pushing its ranking up to seventh, but its diplomatic influence fell one spot to sixth, behind Indonesia.