Chinese Airlines Extend Free Cancellation for Japan Flights Amid Diplomatic Tensions

Major Chinese airlines have extended their free cancellation and rebooking policy for Japan-bound flights through the end of March next year. The move comes after Japan's prime minister recently mentioned the possibility of Self-Defense Forces intervention in a "Taiwan contingency," prompting China to effectively shut down cultural exchanges with Japan and South Korea.

Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced they would extend free refund and rebooking options for Japan routes until March 28, 2025, according to Global Times, Bloomberg, and other international media outlets on Tuesday. The airlines had originally planned to offer the policy only through December 31 of this year.

"This decision was made considering changes in market demand and passenger convenience," Air China said on its official website. The policy applies to tickets issued before noon on December 5 for Japan-bound, Japan-originating, or Japan-transit flights scheduled before March 28 next year. Passengers can cancel or change these bookings without additional fees.

Experts have characterized the move as China's distinctive form of "aviation diplomacy pressure." Chinese tourists visiting Japan numbered approximately 6.9 million in 2024, representing the largest share of Japan's inbound visitors.

The extended policy period notably covers peak Japan travel seasons including Chinese New Year and cherry blossom season, suggesting an intent to fundamentally suppress demand for Japan travel. "The three-month extension is not simply about providing convenience but rather a signal of strengthening flight controls," an industry official said. "Recovery in China-Japan relations appears unlikely for the time being."

International media have dubbed this the "Takaichi Fallout." Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi mentioned the possibility of Self-Defense Forces military intervention in the event of a Taiwan contingency. This marked the first time a Japanese prime minister directly linked SDF deployment to the Taiwan issue.

Since the remarks, China has mobilized state media to maintain intense criticism of Japan. People's Daily, Xinhua News Agency, CCTV, and Global Times have been amplifying public sentiment against Japan through continuous reports featuring analyses from military experts and scholars. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Ministry of Education, and the Chinese Embassy in Japan simultaneously issued travel and study abroad advisories.

The impact has been substantial. More than 1,900 China-to-Japan flights were canceled in December alone, representing approximately 40% of total flights, according to CCTV. Aviation information site FlightMaster projected the China-Japan route cancellation rate would reach 26.4%.

CGTN reported that Chinese airlines canceled dozens of routes to Japan following Takaichi's remarks, with approximately 500,000 bookings evaporating. Major Chinese travel agencies have already suspended sales of Japan travel packages. Yoshiyuki Yamaya, chairman of Kansai Airport Group, said Kansai-mainland China routes would decline by 34% in the second week of December alone, adding that such effects would continue for the time being.