A new projection gives Hong Myung-bo's South Korean side an 89% chance of advancing from the group stage at the 2026 World Cup in North America.
According to the "third-place tracker" published by U.S. online sports outlet The Athletic on Tuesday, Group E's third-place Ecuador ranked first and Group B's third-place Bosnia and Herzegovina ranked second, while South Korea was placed fifth.
The rankings also reflected the current third-place nations in groups that have not yet played their third group-stage matches.
The 48 participating nations, the largest field ever, are divided into 12 groups for the group stage. The 24 teams that finish first or second in their groups, along with the top eight among the third-place finishers, advance to the round of 32 knockout stage.
The ranking of third-place nations is determined in order of points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play points, and the latest FIFA ranking earned in the group stage.
Ecuador, which beat Germany 2-1 in their final match to finish with one win, one draw and one loss, recorded four points, a goal difference of 0 and two goals scored, securing their place in the round of 32.
Group B's third-place Bosnia, which posted one win, one draw and one loss with four points, a goal difference of -1 and five goals scored, has also already secured advancement to the round of 32.
South Korea recorded one win and two losses, three points, a goal difference of -1 and two goals scored.
Group C's third-place Scotland posted one win and two losses, three points, a goal difference of -3 and only one goal scored, leaving them in eighth place, below South Korea.
The Athletic projected that third-place teams with four or more points have a chance of advancing to the round of 32 of 99% or higher, close to 100%.
Nations with three points like South Korea have a 58% chance of advancing, and depending on goal difference, those with "0" or higher are expected to secure a 99% chance of reaching the knockout stage.
Among the nations that have not yet played their third group-stage matches, the teams with the same points as South Korea but a lower goal difference are Group D's Paraguay and Group J's Algeria (both with a goal difference of -2).
