South Korea's national football team has seen its chances of advancing to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup grow more distant. Ecuador, a rival in the competition for a third-place wildcard spot, picked up three points by defeating Germany. Sweden drew with Japan and Paraguay drew with Australia, each adding one point to climb above Korea. Korea's fate in the round of 32 could be decided as early as Friday, Korea time.
According to FIFA on Thursday, Korea (one win, two losses, three points) has slipped to sixth in a situation where only eight of the 12 third-place teams can secure round-of-32 tickets. If three more teams record higher points or goal differential than Korea in the group-stage matches held Friday and Saturday, Korea will not advance to the round of 32.
Ecuador pulled off an upset, beating Germany 2-1 in their final Group E match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, United States. With one win, one draw and one loss for four points (goal difference of 0), Ecuador finished third in Group E. As of that day, Ecuador rose to second among the 12 third-place teams, securing its place in the round of 32.
Sweden drew 1-1 with Japan in their third Group F match. With one win, one draw and one loss (four points, goal difference of 0), Sweden edged out Ecuador on goals scored to rank first among the third-place teams and advance to the round of 32.
Paraguay drew 0-0 with Australia to reach four points (goal difference of -2). Paraguay ranked fourth among third-place teams, behind Bosnia and Herzegovina (four points, goal difference of -1) on goal difference, but must still wait to see other teams' results.
Following the group-stage results of the three nations, Korea dropped two spots from the previous day to sixth among the third-place teams. Korea's elimination from the tournament will be confirmed if three or more third-place teams surpass Korea's record in the final group-stage matches of the six remaining groups.
Elimination could be confirmed as early as Friday, depending on the results. The "third-place playoff" between Senegal (zero points, goal difference of -3) and Iraq (zero points, goal difference of -6) in Group I is the match that will decide Korea's fate. If the match ends in a draw, neither nation will surpass Korea, and even if Senegal wins, Korea will remain ahead on goal difference if the margin is one point. But if Senegal wins by two or more goals, it will overtake Korea (two goals scored) on goals scored.
In the Group G matches, it is favorable for Korea if Egypt (four points, goal difference of 2) and Belgium (two points, goal difference of 0) both beat Iran (two points, goal difference of 0) and New Zealand (one point, goal difference of -2) respectively. If Iran beats Egypt and Belgium defeats New Zealand, Egypt would finish third in the group with four points and be ranked ahead of Korea. Even if Belgium and Iran draw, Korea cannot move ahead because both teams have a goal difference of 0.
In Group H, the standings are formed in the order of Spain (four points, goal difference of 4), Uruguay (two points, goal difference of 0), Cape Verde (two points, goal difference of 0) and Saudi Arabia (one point, goal difference of -4). If Spain beats Uruguay and Saudi Arabia beats Cape Verde in the final matches, Uruguay and Cape Verde would be tied on two points and rank below Korea among the third-place teams. However, if both matches end in draws, or if Uruguay beats Spain and Cape Verde draws with Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde would finish third in the group with three points and move ahead of Korea on goal difference.
Even if Korea gets through Friday under the best-case scenario, it cannot rest easy. Standings could still be overturned in the matches played Saturday. Excluding Group L third-place team Croatia (three points, goal difference of -1), which is already ahead of Korea in the live third-place standings, Group J third-place team Algeria (three points, goal difference of -2) and Group K third-place team the Democratic Republic of the Congo (one point, goal difference of -1) could also surpass Korea depending on their final results.
