Korea finished the group stage third in Group A with one win and two losses (three points), failing to secure automatic qualification for the round of 32. But when calculating the scenarios for advancing to the tournament, the possibility is not so small. Its fate, however, will be decided by the results of other groups' matches held over three days starting Wednesday.
According to FIFA on Tuesday, 13 of the 48 participating nations have secured round-of-32 qualification and seven have been eliminated as of that day, deciding the fate of 20 nations in total. Twenty-eight nations, including Korea, remain in contention for the round of 32. As of that day, the simple odds stand at 1.47-to-1.
Because eight of the 12 teams that finished third across all 12 groups advance to the round of 32, at least four teams must fall below Korea in points, goal difference and other criteria. With the group stage completed in three groups as of that day, only one third-place team ranks below Korea: Scotland (three points, goal difference of -3). Going forward, three more nations must finish below Korea in points or goal difference. Korea has three points but a goal difference of -1. It is fortunate, at least, that Korea did not lose to South Africa by a margin of two goals or more.
The results in Groups E, G and I are especially important. In general, decisive results rather than draws favor Korea. It would be a big help to Korea if Germany (two wins) beats Ecuador (one draw, one loss) and Ivory Coast (one win, one loss) beats Curacao (one draw, one loss). That would leave both Ecuador and Curacao with one draw and two losses (one point), placing them behind Korea.
In Group G, Iran and Belgium each have two draws, sitting in second and third place respectively. If Iran loses to Egypt in its final match, it would have two draws and one loss (two points), again falling below Korea. It would be good for Belgium to beat last-placed New Zealand as expected based on form.
The final match between third-place Senegal and fourth-place Iraq in Group I (both with two losses) is especially important. Senegal, with a goal difference of -3, must not win by a large margin even if it beats Iraq for Korea to benefit.
