Coach Hong Myung-bo's South Korea side has a 91.08% chance of reaching the round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup in North America, despite a narrow loss to Mexico in its second group match, according to an analysis.
Sports statistics firm Opta projected South Korea's chances of advancing to the last 32 at the 2026 World Cup at 91.08% on Sunday morning Korean time.
Drawn into Group A with the Czech Republic, Mexico and South Africa, South Korea came from behind to beat the Czech Republic 2-1 in its opener but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat to host nation Mexico in its second match. The team performed well overall, but a single mistake in defending an aerial ball in the 50th minute led to the loss.
South Korea's remaining opponent in its third match is South Africa. A draw alone would secure Hong's side second place in the group and a spot in the round of 32.
Opta predicted each nation's chances of advancing to the last 32 based on the results so far in each group. It gave South Korea a high 91.08% chance of reaching the knockout stage.
There remains a chance of elimination, of course. If South Korea loses to South Africa and the Czech Republic defeats Mexico, South Korea would finish fourth in the group and be eliminated.
Even if South Korea loses to South Africa, should the Czech Republic fail to beat Mexico, South Korea could still eye a place in the last 32 as the group's third-place team behind Mexico and South Africa.
In its tournament bracket projection, Opta saw South Korea as likely to advance to the round of 32 as the group runner-up. It predicted South Korea's opponent would be Switzerland, the runner-up of Group B.
Switzerland sits second in Group B with one win and one draw after playing two matches. After a 1-1 draw with Qatar in its opener, it secured a comprehensive 4-1 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina in its second match.
Opta favored Switzerland in the round-of-32 clash between South Korea and Switzerland. South Korea's chance of reaching the round of 16 was just 35.25%.
In this tournament, where 48 nations are divided into 12 groups of four for the group stage, the top two from each group, 24 nations in total, are joined by the eight best third-place finishers to continue the title race in a round-of-32 knockout.
When two or more teams in the group stage are level on points, the so-called "head-to-head" rule, which considers results between the tied teams in the order of points, goal difference and goals scored, is applied first.
After that, rankings are determined in the order of overall goal difference across the three group matches, goals scored, fair play points and FIFA ranking.
The day after the Mexico match, Hong's side held a recovery session on Saturday and recharged with a full rest day on Sunday.
The team will travel by charter flight to Monterrey, the "battleground," on Monday to begin its preparations for the South Africa match.
The match between South Korea and South Africa kicks off at 10 a.m. on Thursday at Monterrey Stadium.
