Hong Myung-bo's Korea Wins, Boosting Round of 32 Chances to 93%

"Victory Over Mexico Would Secure Advancement" 55% Chance Even With Losses in Remaining Matches

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By Jung Moon-young
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Coach Hong Myung-bo encourages his players during the Group A opening match between South Korea and the Czech Republic at Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico, on the 11th (local time) at the 2026 North and Central America World Cup. Yonhap News - Seoul Economic Daily Sports News from South Korea
Coach Hong Myung-bo encourages his players during the Group A opening match between South Korea and the Czech Republic at Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico, on the 11th (local time) at the 2026 North and Central America World Cup. Yonhap News

The South Korean national football team came from behind to win its opening match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, moving a step closer to advancing to the round of 32.

The tournament, featuring 48 countries, holds its group stage with 12 groups of four nations each, with the top two from each group, or 24 teams, advancing to the round of 32. The eight best-performing teams among the third-place finishers across the groups join them. Therefore, winning two matches in the group stage brings the chance of reaching the knockout stage close to 100%. Korea, which has already secured one win, can advance to the round of 32 and even finish atop its group by beating just one of Mexico or South Africa, the teams it will face in the group stage.

Immediately after the match against the Czech Republic, U.S. sports outlet The Athletic reported that Korea's chances of reaching the round of 32 had risen to 93%, based on its own World Cup prediction model. The outlet projected that even if Korea loses to Mexico, its chances of advancing would stand at 86%, and analyzed that a victory over Mexico would effectively secure its passage to the knockout stage.

The Athletic put Korea's chances of reaching the round of 32 at 55% even in the worst-case scenario. "Even if Korea loses both of its remaining matches, the analysis shows it still has a chance slightly higher than a coin flip," the outlet explained.

Original reporting by Jung Moon-young for Seoul Economic Daily.

AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.

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