As Iran raises the possibility of boycotting the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, analysts warn that withdrawal could result in massive economic losses and potential exclusion from the next World Cup qualifying round.
AP reported on the 2nd that "Iran's place at the World Cup, now just three months away, has become uncertain as Middle East conflicts triggered by the United States—a co-host of the 2026 North American World Cup—intensify." The wire service added that "Iran would have to accept massive economic losses and disciplinary measures including exclusion from the next World Cup qualifiers if it withdraws."
Iran lost Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28.
Iran subsequently launched retaliatory attacks against Israel and neighboring countries hosting U.S. military bases.
After the situation spiraled out of control, Iran Football Federation President Mehdi Taj told Iranian state television: "It seems difficult to expect participation in this World Cup when we have been attacked by the United States."
While the World Cup will be held across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, Iran—an Asian powerhouse—is scheduled to play all three group-stage matches in the United States. Placed in Group G, Iran faces New Zealand and Belgium in Los Angeles on June 15 and 21, respectively, followed by Egypt in Seattle on June 26. However, the team's participation itself remains uncertain.
If Iran withdraws from the World Cup, it would forfeit substantial payments from FIFA. FIFA provides $1.5 million to each of the 48 qualifying nations as "preparation cost compensation" and distributes $9 million to each of the 16 teams eliminated in the group stage. Withdrawal would mean losing at least $10.5 million (approximately 15.2 billion won).
Additionally, FIFA mandates fines of at least 250,000 Swiss francs (470 million won) for withdrawal more than 30 days before the tournament opens, and at least 500,000 Swiss francs (940 million won) for withdrawal within 30 days.
Withdrawal also carries the risk of exclusion from the 2030 World Cup qualifiers.