The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw has created a path for the first-ever World Cup knockout match between South Korea and Japan.
At the draw ceremony held in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, the two Asian rivals were placed in positions where they could meet in either the round of 32 or the round of 16. Global football attention is now focused on the possibility of a "guillotine match" where the loser's World Cup journey ends immediately.
Despite the fierce rivalry — often described in Korea as "a match you can't lose even at rock-paper-scissors" — the two nations' full-strength squads have rarely faced each other in recent years.
The last competitive match featuring both teams' top European-based players was the 2011 Asian Cup semifinal in Qatar. South Korea lost on penalties after extra time and has not faced Japan's best lineup in the 14 years since. Recent encounters, including the 0-3 defeat in Yokohama in 2021, were played without key players such as Son Heung-min (LAFC).
South Korea, managed by Hong Myung-bo, was drawn into Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, and the winner of European playoff Path D. Japan, led by Hajime Moriyasu, landed in Group F with the Netherlands, Tunisia, and the European playoff Path B winner.
The most likely scenario for a Korea-Japan clash is in the round of 32. If Japan finishes third in their group and South Korea tops Group A, they would meet at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
A round of 16 encounter is also possible. If South Korea finishes second and Japan first in their respective groups, and both win their round of 32 matches, they would face off at NRG Stadium in Houston for a quarterfinal berth.
Another path exists if both teams advance as third-place finishers, which could also lead to a round of 16 meeting.
South Korea has qualified for 11 consecutive World Cups and Japan for eight, yet the two nations have never met in the tournament's main stage.
A World Cup defeat to Japan would trigger enormous backlash in South Korea. While Korea leads the all-time head-to-head record at 42 wins, 23 draws, and 17 losses, Japan has won the last three meetings.
In a commemorative dialogue hosted by Japan's Kyodo News in July marking the 60th anniversary of Korea-Japan diplomatic relations, both managers expressed their ambitions.
"Our dream is big — we are fighting with the goal of winning the World Cup," Moriyasu said. "Some might say that's delusional, but I believe it's not impossible if we fight match by match. Part of why we can think this way is thanks to Korea reaching the semifinals in 2002."
"My goal and mission is to take Korea further than we've ever been before," Hong said. "Building an organizationally and mentally strong team is also my challenge. I'm working on that every day. I truly want to see Korea and Japan face each other in a World Cup final someday, and I'm determined to make it happen."
