The trends known as "probability flight" and "social studies flight" among students preparing for Korea's college entrance exam have become more pronounced, according to a recent analysis. The proportion of students choosing probability and statistics in the math section surpassed half for the first time, while the number choosing social studies also rose sharply, accelerating shifts in admissions strategies.
According to an analysis by Megastudy Education of about 240,000 users of its full-service program for the June mock exams over the past three years, released Tuesday, the selection rate for probability and statistics in the math section of this year's June mock exam stood at 50.3%. That marks a 14.4 percentage point increase from 35.9% last year. By contrast, the selection rate for calculus and geometry fell below half to 49.7%.
The number of students choosing probability and statistics has risen for three consecutive years. The rate climbed from 25.8% in 2024 to 35.9% last year and 50.3% this year. Megastudy Education attributed the trend to a narrowing gap in the highest standard scores among math elective subjects, and to the fact that students choosing probability and statistics can now achieve scores high enough to gain admission to top-tier universities such as Yonsei University and Korea University.
The regular admissions cutoffs for medical and pharmaceutical programs and semiconductor contract-based programs were also projected to remain at high levels. Based on the combined average percentile scores for Korean, math, and two elective subjects under preliminary scoring of the June mock exam, the analysis projected that medicine would require at least 292 points, dentistry 290 points, oriental medicine 288 points, and pharmacy 286 points. In particular, the qualifying score for semiconductor contract-based programs was also estimated at 288 points or higher, suggesting the cutoff would rise to a level similar to that of oriental medicine.
In the elective section, the "social studies flight" trend also continued. In this year's June mock exam, the proportion of students selecting at least one social studies subject surpassed 80%. By contrast, the proportion choosing two science subjects fell to 19.8%, about half the previous year's level of 36.1%. The proportion choosing a social-studies-plus-social-studies combination rose from 31.7% in 2024 to 44.5% last year and 60.6% this year.
"The number of cases where natural science track students choose social studies instead of science is also increasing," a Megastudy Education official said. "It is the result of judging that, even at the cost of giving up bonus points, it is more advantageous to choose subjects with a relatively lighter study burden."
