In the June 3 superintendent elections, the progressive camp won 10 of the nation's 16 metropolitan and provincial education superintendent posts, while the conservative camp took 6. However, since the progressive camp swept the Seoul metropolitan area—including Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, where the school-age population is concentrated—the result is being assessed as effectively a sweeping victory for progressives. At the same time, conservative candidates won in Daejeon and Sejong, areas initially regarded as progressive strongholds, leading some to assess that conservatives also managed to save some face. In particular, the South Gyeongsang race remained a tight contest between conservative and progressive candidates until the end, and its winner (Kwon Soon-ki, conservative) was the last to be confirmed.
According to the vote count results of the June 3 superintendent elections held Tuesday, a total of 10 progressive-leaning winners emerged. Analysts say the election effectively ended in a sweeping victory for progressives, as they swept areas with concentrated school-age populations such as Seoul, Gyeonggi, Busan, and Incheon. Analysts attribute this to the progressive camp's strategy of emphasizing easing admissions competition and expanding educational welfare, which had some effect, combined with a backlash against the conservative camp following the December 3 martial law incident, which extended to support for progressive-leaning superintendent candidates. However, given that in the nationwide gubernatorial elections the progressive ruling party took 12 seats and the conservative opposition party took 4, conservative support focused on improving academic achievement was higher in the superintendent elections than in the gubernatorial elections.
In Seoul, considered the biggest battleground in this year's superintendent election, eight candidates threw their hats into the ring, but as of 10:30 a.m., incumbent Superintendent Jung Keun-sik comfortably secured re-election with 30.37% of the vote. Before the election, the fact that three progressive-leaning candidates had run was cited as a variable, but its actual impact was limited. However, the internal conflict within the progressive camp revealed during the election process could remain a burden for future superintendent elections. Candidates Jung Keun-sik and Han Man-jung filed lawsuits against each other over the use of the "democratic progressive candidate" designation, focusing on negative campaigning rather than policy competition.
Some analysts say that practical issues such as reimbursement of campaign expenses lay behind the crowded field of Seoul superintendent candidates. Under the current Public Official Election Act, a superintendent candidate who wins 10% or more of the total valid votes can be reimbursed for half of campaign expenses, and a candidate who wins 15% or more can be reimbursed for the full amount. By contrast, a candidate who withdraws midway receives no reimbursement at all. For this reason, analyses have steadily been raised that a considerable number of candidates pursued strategies focused on securing a certain level of vote share rather than the possibility of winning. In particular, conservative candidate Cho Jeon-hyuk concentrated on rallying his support base by emphasizing the abolition of the Student Human Rights Ordinance and opposition to homosexuality during the campaign, ultimately recording a final vote share of around 23.4%. The unified conservative candidate, Yoon Ho-sang, recorded a vote share of around 14.5%. Cho will be reimbursed for the full campaign expenses, while Yoon will be reimbursed for half.
The strength of the progressive camp was also pronounced outside Seoul. In Incheon, incumbent Superintendent Do Sung-hoon succeeded in winning with 36.35% of the vote, drawing on his incumbency advantage amid a three-way race with candidates Lee Dae-hyung and Lim Byung-gu.
In the Daejeon superintendent election, where three-term Superintendent Seol Dong-ho could not run due to term limits, five candidates ran—the second-largest number after Seoul. Exit polls and results through the middle of the count favored progressive candidate Sung Kwang-jin, but after a fierce contest, conservative candidate Oh Seok-jin won with 27.48%. This was the lowest vote share among the superintendent winners.
In Ulsan, progressive candidate Cho Yong-sik won with 39.22% of the vote, and in Gangwon, progressive candidate Kang Sam-young earned the honor of winning with 41.54% of the vote. In Sejong, contrary to exit poll results, centrist-conservative candidate Kang Mi-ae won with 36.25% of the vote. In this regard, analysts say that the controversy over Education Minister Choi Kyo-jin's support for candidate Lim Jeon-soo, which erupted late in the campaign, worked as a negative factor for Lim.
In Jeju, progressive candidate Ko Eui-sook won with 48.08% of the vote, beating conservative incumbent Superintendent Kim Kwang-soo, and in South Jeolla, where two incumbent superintendents threw their hats into the ring, incumbent Superintendent Kim Dae-jung earned the honor of winning with 42.52% of the vote. In Gyeonggi, which has the largest school-age population in the country, incumbent Superintendent Lim Tae-hee, who led in the early stages of counting, failed to win re-election as he could not overcome the organizational power and name recognition of candidate Ahn Min-seok, a former five-term lawmaker. Ahn's vote share was 52.81%, the second-highest among superintendent candidates after Jeonbuk winner Cheon Ho-sung (56.63%). In South Gyeongsang, progressive candidate Song Young-ki and unified conservative candidate Kwon Soon-ki went back and forth until the end, with Kwon narrowly winning with 38.53% of the vote over Song (38.13%).
In this election, the incumbency advantage did not work strongly, at least for conservative-leaning incumbent superintendents. Eleven incumbents ran this time: Seoul Superintendent Jung Keun-sik, Gyeonggi Superintendent Lim Tae-hee, Incheon Superintendent Do Sung-hoon, Busan Superintendent Kim Seok-jun, Daegu Superintendent Kang Eun-hee, Gangwon Superintendent Shin Kyung-ho, North Gyeongsang Superintendent Lim Jong-sik, North Chungcheong Superintendent Yoon Geon-young, Jeju Superintendent Kim Kwang-soo, South Jeolla Superintendent Kim Dae-jung, and Gwangju Superintendent Lee Jeong-sun. But except in some strongly conservative regions such as North Gyeongsang and Daegu, the existing conservative-leaning superintendents did not enjoy the incumbency advantage. In the 2018 election, all 12 incumbent superintendents won, while in 2022, 9 of 13 incumbents won, showing that the incumbency advantage has been weakening over time.
However, voter indifference was considered substantial in this superintendent election as well. Because superintendent ballots carry no candidate numbers or party names, voters with low interest in education issues often voted for candidates placed at the top. A voter surnamed A, who lives in Daechi-dong in Seoul—dubbed the country's top education district—said, "I judged whether a candidate was progressive or conservative by the background color used on the superintendent candidate's poster," adding, "There were so many candidates in both camps that the decision was not easy." In particular, given that invalid votes in the superintendent election four years ago amounted to about 4% of the total—roughly three times that of the gubernatorial elections—analysts say a considerable number of votes will likely be classified as invalid in this year's superintendent election as well.
Meanwhile, with the progressive camp taking a majority of the nation's superintendent posts in the June 3 election, policies they pledged—such as strengthening teachers' authority and expanding democratic citizenship education—are expected to gain momentum. Various educational welfare policies, such as care education and student transportation cost support, are also more likely to proceed as pledged.
However, most assess that changes to the college admissions system pledged by the progressive camp, such as switching to absolute grading for school records and the College Scholastic Ability Test, are unlikely to be realized, as they are not within superintendents' authority and require social consensus. The conversion of autonomous private high schools, foreign language high schools, and international high schools into general high schools is also an issue requiring coordination with the Ministry of Education, including revisions to the Enforcement Decree of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, so difficulties are expected during the process. A power struggle with the central government and the political circle to protect related budgets in connection with the overhaul of local education finance subsidies is also inevitable.
