The Democratic Party of Korea is poised to secure a substantial majority of Seoul's 25 district chief positions. The People Power Party had vowed not to repeat its crushing defeat in the 2018 local elections, when it lost 24 of 25 district chief seats to the Democratic Party except for Seocho. Despite that resolve, the trend clearly favored the Democratic Party.
As of 2 a.m. on the 4th, according to the National Election Commission's vote count, Democratic Party candidates were leading in 21 of Seoul's 25 districts. These include Jongno, Yongsan, Seongdong, Gwangjin, Dongdaemun, Jungnang, Seongbuk, Gangbuk, Dobong, Eunpyeong, Mapo, Gangseo, Geumcheon and Yeongdeungpo. People Power Party candidates were ahead in Dongjak and Seocho. Vote counting was delayed overall as voting continued late into the night due to issues including ballot shortages. In particular, counting in Dongjak began late at night and was repeatedly suspended after problems including damage to the seals on early voting boxes emerged. Seven hours after voting ended, the Dongjak district chief vote count remained in the 1 percent range.
Seoul district chief elections have swung dramatically along with the prevailing political tide in the last two local elections. In the 7th nationwide local elections in 2018, the Democratic Party effectively achieved a clean sweep, winning 24 of Seoul's 25 districts. By contrast, in the 8th local elections held in 2022 just after the presidential election, the People Power Party flipped the map by taking 17 districts.
The Democratic Party has notably increased its chances of recapturing some areas previously dominated by the People Power Party, particularly in key districts along the Han River. In the Han River belt, where voters are sensitive to real estate and development issues, People Power Party candidates campaigned on easing redevelopment regulations and speeding up development. However, public sentiment that President Lee Jae-myung and the ruling party should be empowered as they enter the second year of their term gained momentum, tilting the overall Seoul race toward the Democratic Party, analysts said.
The incumbency advantage is also cited as a factor boosting Democratic Party candidates. Running under the Democratic Party banner for third terms, Jungnang District Chief candidate Ryu Kyung-ki, Seongbuk District Chief candidate Lee Seung-ro, Eunpyeong District Chief candidate Kim Mi-kyung and Gwanak District Chief candidate Park Jun-hee were all leading.
The People Power Party, however, believes the results could be reversed in the southeastern districts including Gangnam, where conservative support is relatively strong, as the count remains in the early 30 percent range. Some forecasts suggest the party could secure between two and seven districts. People Power Party candidates were indeed in tight races with Democratic Party candidates in Gangnam and Seocho. The People Power Party made a final push in the Gangnam area by emphasizing accelerated redevelopment projects and the need to check the government and ruling party. Even amid the Democratic Party's overall lead, the party is hoping that a desire to "block the unilateral dominance of the government and ruling party" could come into play in some districts.
