With one week to go before the June 3 local elections, the basic municipal head races in Gyeonggi Province are showing an overall lead for the Democratic Party of Korea, while local issues are emerging as variables in some battleground areas. Analysts say the People Power Party (PPP) could perform relatively well, defying earlier forecasts of a one-sided defeat.
A review by The Seoul Economic Daily of various opinion polls conducted since early this month shows that Democratic Party candidates, riding the "ruling party premium," have steadily held the lead in around 20 of the 31 cities and counties. However, the PPP is also mounting a chase through late-stage conservative consolidation, an "incumbent municipal head premium," and offensives on local issues, demonstrating considerable staying power.
The Gyeonggi provincial chapters of the two major parties — the Democratic Party and the PPP — have not officially specified which districts they consider to be leading, trailing, or competitive. They are wary of the negative impact on candidates' campaigning if a district is classified as trailing.
Still, simulation results that the two parties have compiled based on local media polls, internal surveys, and trends are partially leaking outside the parties.
According to these results, the Democratic Party is cautiously projecting potential victories in 26 districts. The five areas designated as trailing are concentrated in northern and southeastern Gyeonggi, regions with traditionally strong conservative voting tendencies.
The Democratic Party is taking a conservative view of the landscape for now.
"The current outlook is based on opinion polls from four to five days ago, and going forward, the mood of consolidation among PPP supporters will likely continue. While Democratic Party supporters are also consolidating, simulations suggest tight races are expected in three to five areas," a Democratic Party official said.
The official also forecast that, if current trends continue, the party may receive a somewhat weaker scorecard than in the 2018 local elections. At that time, the Democratic Party recorded a historic sweep, winning 29 of the 31 basic municipal head seats, with only Yeoncheon and Gapyeong as exceptions.
The PPP appears to be bearing the full brunt of the fallout from President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment across all 31 cities and counties. Perhaps for this reason, rather than aggressively predicting the landscape, the party is maintaining a low profile and pouring all its remaining strength into the final stretch of the campaign to drive conservative voter turnout. In some districts, candidates are visibly relying on personal appeal rather than the party brand.
While the PPP is keeping its cards close, it is concentrating party resources on districts such as Yeoncheon, Gapyeong, Yeoju, Icheon, and Gwacheon, where its incumbent municipal heads have built solid bases and the party sees a chance of victory. There is also hopeful speculation that, if support rates link up with neighboring municipalities, the party could achieve meaningful results in up to 10 districts.
The Reform Party and the Progressive Party, which have fielded candidates in some municipalities, are minor parties but are putting up a determined fight, building their own footholds and poised to exert some influence on local races.
The overall landscape forecast by Gyeonggi political circles so far shows that the Democratic Party's lead continues in central and western Gyeonggi, where population density is high. In particular, Democratic candidates have a firm presence in Suwon, the provincial capital, as well as Hwaseong, Anyang, and Pyeongtaek. In Siheung, a traditional Democratic stronghold, the PPP has been unable to find a candidate, effectively confirming the uncontested election of Lim Byeong-taek, the incumbent mayor seeking a third term.
The PPP is striving to expand its support base, centered on rural areas, into major cities, and self-assessments indicate that the strategy is producing results in some areas.
Officials from both parties commonly forecast that, separate from the total number of basic municipal head seats won, the outcomes in core Greater Seoul cities where PPP incumbent mayors are in office could determine the overall fortunes of the Gyeonggi basic municipal elections. These are also the areas where fierce contests between the two parties' candidates have continued from the early stages of the campaign.
The most representative such areas are Yongin and Seongnam — megacities with populations of around one million and considered bellwethers of Greater Seoul sentiment. In Yongin, the relocation of the semiconductor national industrial complex has emerged as a key issue, while in Seongnam, the redevelopment volume in Bundang has been a focal point. Seongnam, in particular, draws unique attention in the June 3 local elections due to its symbolism as President Lee Jae-myung's political hometown.
Variables in the final stretch of the election include various investigations and complaint-and-accusation battles. In some areas, including Seongnam, allegations of violations of the Public Official Election Act and politically charged investigations are continuing, raising the possibility of impact on local sentiment. Inside and outside political circles, there are forecasts that "swing voters could move depending on the final TV debates and candidate risks."
"The Democratic Party's lead continues in Gyeonggi elections. Nevertheless, conservative consolidation, shifts in sentiment in neighboring municipalities at the end of the race, and the ability to respond to local issues will be the key variables determining the final outcome," a Gyeonggi political insider said. "As the country's largest metropolitan jurisdiction, Gyeonggi's results carry the character of a preliminary round for future general and presidential elections, making it a battleground where both ruling and opposition parties will be on edge until the very end."
