The economic barriers that have discouraged young Koreans from marrying and having children are being dismantled by a booming stock market, according to a new analysis. Beyond simply boosting household wealth, the equity rally is instilling confidence about the future and positively influencing long-term life planning.
KB Securities said in a recent report that Korea's total fertility rate posted an unusual rebound, reaching 0.96 in January and February this year. This marks the steepest increase since statistics began in 1981, surging 23 percent from 2024 and 11 percent from 2025, respectively.
The biggest reason young Koreans avoid marriage is overwhelmingly "economic burden." According to Statistics Korea's "2024 Social Survey," 31.3 percent cited "insufficient marriage funds" as their reason for not marrying — the highest across all age groups. Economic factors, including "unstable employment status" at 12.4 percent, accounted for nearly half of all responses.
Lee Eun-taek, an analyst at KB Securities, argued that stock market returns are filling this economic void. "Rising stock prices go beyond mere investment returns, stimulating broader economic optimism and risk appetite," Lee said. "People tend to decide on marriage and childbirth when they feel confident about the future, rather than after meticulous calculations." In other words, wealth built through stock investment is serving as "seed money" for marriage and acting as a catalyst for the birth rate rebound.
The report also highlighted the correlation between stock prices and housing prices as asset market variables. While rising home prices generally weigh on the birth rate, a strong stock market can offset that downward pressure when it outpaces property gains.
In fact, in 2000, 2006-2007, and 2026, real estate prices were rising, yet the KOSPI staged powerful rallies, and birth rates climbed in tandem. In contrast, from 2016 to 2021, when the stock market was stuck in a range while home prices soared, a sense of being "suddenly poor" spread, and low fertility deepened.
Current market conditions are structurally favorable to the birth rate. The KOSPI has been on a steep upward trajectory while home price gains have been comparatively moderate, meaning expectations of wealth accumulation are outpacing housing cost burdens.
KB Securities forecast that the total fertility rate will maintain a relatively solid trend around 0.9 over the next year. However, the firm made clear that this rebound does not signal a full resolution of Korea's structural low-fertility problem.
"The short-term rebound in the birth rate could last longer than the market expects," Lee added. "Ultimately, the direction of this year's fertility rate will depend less on demographic factors and more on how long the public confidence created by the stock market rally persists."
