"I met with a Danish minister during a European business trip last year. The minister said Denmark is also concerned about its recently declining birthrate. Right after the meeting, local reporters were waiting in the next room to interview me. The first question from the Danish reporter was, 'Korea had one of the lowest birthrates in the world. What policies did you use to make it rebound?'"
Joo Hyung-hwan, former Vice Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy, said this in a recent interview with The Seoul Economic Daily. "Many countries around the world experiencing low birthrate issues are interested in and sympathetic to Korea's solutions," he said. A graduate of the 26th class of the civil service examination, Joo served as Economic and Financial Secretary to the Presidential Office in 2013 during the Park Geun-hye administration, followed by positions as First Vice Minister of Economy and Finance and Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, walking the path of a career economic bureaucrat. In 2024, during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, he returned to public office after seven years as Vice Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy, a position elevated to a full-time deputy prime minister-level role, playing a key role in policy formulation.
Having stepped down from the vice chairman position late last year, he wrote and published in March this year his book "700 Days of Record: A Major Shift in Population Policy," which covers the process of implementing low birthrate measures during his term, the results, and his recommendations for Korean society. "As the birthrate has recently shown a rebound, social attention to the seriousness and urgency of demographic issues such as low birthrate and ageing seems to have weakened," Joo said. "I wanted to convey that the population issue in our society is still ongoing, and that unless we push forward with much stronger policies at a faster pace than now, the momentum for the birthrate rebound could disappear."
Korea's total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) fell to 0.72 in 2023, the lowest in the world, before rebounding to 0.75 in 2024 and 0.8 in 2025. According to the National Data Agency, the total fertility rate in February this year was 0.93, similar to January's 0.99. If this trend continues, the rebound is expected to push the rate into the 0.9 range this year.
"If this trend continues, the total fertility rate will rise to 1.1 by 2030," Joo said. "Policy efforts were the catalyst for creating the momentum for the birthrate rebound." After taking over the committee, he investigated why young people are not having children. As a result, he confirmed that the difficulty of balancing work and family was a major obstacle and set out to improve it. During his tenure at the committee, he pushed through various work-family balance support policies, including raising parental leave benefits (from a maximum of 1.1 million won to 2.5 million won), expanding paternity leave (from a maximum of 10 days to 30 days), introducing a short-term parental leave system, and establishing a replacement worker subsidy system for those on parental leave.
Joo is sharing lessons learned from that experience abroad. "Every country has a limited budget for implementing policies, and institutional changes are not easy," he said. "I advise that we need to select the main target of policies in terms of income and age, and concentrate available resources such as budget." He also emphasizes the need for parallel efforts to improve social perceptions and culture.
Joo cited the concentration of population in the Seoul metropolitan area and the burden of private education costs as causes of low birthrate unique to Korea. "Schools and workplaces preferred by many people are all concentrated in the metropolitan area," he said. "As the population concentrates in the metropolitan area, housing prices are rising, leading to an increase in the housing cost burden for young people." He added, "The current government is boldly pushing measures to alleviate metropolitan concentration, but stronger action is needed." He also urged that private education costs, which lead to increased child-rearing expenses, should be reduced through the normalization of public education.
Joo also emphasized the severity of ageing. "In Korea, the 'baby boom' period, when the birthrate surged compared to before, continued for about 20 years after the end of the Korean War," he said. "As the baby boomer generation born during this period continues to enter the elderly population aged 65 and older, the current pace of ageing is the fastest in the world." He added, "At this rate, by around 2037, Korea's elderly population share will reach 37%, becoming the highest in the world. Countermeasures are urgently needed." He argued that as low birthrate and ageing inevitably lead to a decrease in the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) capable of economic activity, a progressive immigration policy is also needed to secure labor.
Joo emphasized that the growth model should be fundamentally overhauled to promote innovation in the Korean economy and increase productivity in response to demographic changes caused by low birthrate and ageing, as well as the development of artificial intelligence (AI). "In particular, we need to ensure that the growing elderly population can have jobs that match their capabilities," he said. "Solutions must be prepared for how to reform the National Pension Service and health insurance, whose sustainability is at risk due to dwindling resources." He added, "Unemployment insurance to prepare for the rise in unemployment that may come with AI development, and wage insurance to support job transitions, will be needed. Efforts to strengthen the social safety net, such as lifelong education and startup support, should also be made."
As a career economic bureaucrat, Joo is also paying attention to the rapidly changing international trade environment caused by the Trump administration's tariff policies and the U.S.-Iran war. "The recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the importance of securing not only crude oil and natural gas, but also industrial raw materials such as naphtha, ammonia, and sulfur," he said. "While maintaining stable relations with the most important countries, the United States and China, we need to expand economic cooperation by concluding free trade agreements (FTAs) with more countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America."
