The number of test-takers choosing Probability and Statistics (commonly called "hwaktong") as their math elective for the 2027 College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) is projected to far exceed those selecting Calculus or Geometry. The so-called "hwaktong rush" is a strategic move in which students opt for Probability and Statistics instead of Calculus — which requires two to three times more study — freeing up time to devote to Korean language and science subjects. However, depending on exam difficulty, standard scores for Probability and Statistics could fall significantly below those for Calculus. Students aiming for top-tier programs such as medical schools may also face some disadvantages by choosing Probability and Statistics, making it essential to adopt a strategy suited to one's own ability level.
According to an analysis released on Monday by Megastudy Education, which examined data from 130,000 users of its full mock-exam service over the past three years, 49.5% of all math test-takers chose Probability and Statistics in the first nationwide mock exam held last month. Compared to the March mock exam last year, the proportion selecting Probability and Statistics surged by 19.5 percentage points. Conversely, the share choosing Calculus fell sharply over the same period, dropping from 68.0% to 48.3% — a decline of 19.7 percentage points.
