If the worst-case scenario of failed greenhouse gas reduction becomes reality, summer in South Korea could extend by more than two months, with the number of extreme heat days tripling, according to new climate projections.
The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) announced Thursday that it has been providing various climate change information through its "Climate Change Situation Map" since January 22, including predictions based on different global warming levels and climate impact data. The map service allows users to view trends and future projections for climate factors such as temperature, precipitation, and wind in their local areas from the past through 2100, based on national standard climate change scenarios.
According to the data, Seoul currently experiences 127 days of summer and 102 days of winter (based on 2000-2019 averages). However, by the late 2080s, summer is projected to extend to 188 days—an increase of 61 days—while winter would shrink to just 12 days, roughly one-tenth of current levels. Under this scenario, winter would begin on January 15, spring on January 27, and summer would run from April 25 through October—approximately six months.
Extreme weather events are also projected to intensify. Seoul currently experiences 31 days of extreme heat annually, but this figure is expected to rise to 103.8 days in the 2080s and 115.6 days in the 2090s. This means one in every three days would bring severe heat. The daily maximum temperature is projected to climb from the current 35.9°C to 43.8°C by the late 2080s—an increase of approximately 7.9°C. Meanwhile, cold wave days, currently averaging 5 days per year, are expected to drop to zero starting in the 2060s.
Freezing days are also projected to decline sharply, from 10.3 days in the 2020s to 6.8 days in the 2050s, 3.3 days in the 2070s, and just 1 day by the 2090s. The situation is similar when looking at national averages: summer, currently 97 days, would extend to 169 days by the late 2080s, while winter would shrink from 107 days to 40 days.
However, under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced from current levels, tropical night occurrences would peak at 39.9 days in 2090—up from 11.7 days in 2025 and 23.1 days in 2050—before declining to 19.3 days by 2100.
