Artificial intelligence has emerged as a central issue ahead of the release of projected physician shortage figures that will serve as the key basis for determining medical school admission quotas for the 2027 academic year.
If the study concludes that more doctors are needed regardless of scale, it would give fresh momentum to medical school enrollment increases that were abandoned under the previous administration. However, medical associations are already challenging the statistical methodology and the deliberation structure of the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee, which will finalize the quotas, raising the possibility of renewed conflict between the government and medical community.
According to the government and medical industry on the 30th, the Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Estimation Committee held its 12th meeting from 3 p.m. to derive final projection results. Since its first meeting in August, the committee has held 11 meetings over five months and narrowed down demand projection models to two: an ARIMA time-series analysis based on total healthcare utilization and a component method model based on per-capita healthcare utilization. Physician supply in 2040 is estimated at approximately 133,000, while demand is projected at 142,000 to 169,000 depending on variables.
The problem is that the scale of physician shortage varies significantly depending on which scenario is applied.
According to committee meeting minutes, the 9th meeting produced a projection that "up to 18,739 doctors could be in short supply by 2040." However, at the 11th meeting, which was originally scheduled to produce final conclusions, analysis suggesting "the shortage could reach as high as 36,094" was also presented. Depending on the combination of models and scenarios, shortage estimates range from 10,000 to 36,000—more than a twofold difference—leading many to observe that complete consensus will be difficult.
A key point of disagreement involves how many patients a single physician can handle. Some committee members believe that the social emphasis on work-life balance combined with an aging physician population will reduce average workload per doctor. In this case, demand for physicians would increase substantially.
There is also significant pushback arguing that as AI applications expand, healthcare service productivity will improve, allowing a single doctor to treat more patients. The argument that legalization of physician assistants will reduce physician dependency and actually improve future doctor productivity is also gaining traction. Under this logic, the number of doctors needed in the future would decrease significantly.
Committee members share the view that projection volatility is inevitable given the need to also consider physicians to be produced under the government's newly promoted regional doctor system and the training of physician-scientists to lead digital healthcare innovation.
Medical school quotas, fixed at 3,058 since 1998, increased to 4,567 for 2025 before being restored to 3,058. Quotas for the 2027 academic year and beyond will be finalized through consultation between the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Ministry of Education, based on the estimation committee's independent calculations and policy judgment by the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee.
With the deliberation committee's role becoming more important, the medical community is intensifying pressure. The committee is the highest statutory consultative body that deliberates on the direction and validity of medical school quota policy based on physician workforce supply and demand projections.
Kim Taek-woo, president of the Korean Medical Association, said at the first meeting of the 5th Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee held the previous day (29th): "The committee must be completely reorganized so that voices from the medical field can be substantively reflected, moving away from its past role as a rubber stamp that decided policies according to government preferences."
"The number of government representatives should be reduced more boldly than the current proposal, and those seats should be allocated to private members who can represent the realities of the medical field, particularly provider representatives, to strengthen expertise," Kim urged.
