With the Democratic Party's national convention set for Aug. 17, now 23 days away as of the 25th, the approval ratings of leading contenders for party leadership are in flux. Poll after poll had shown candidate Kim Min-seok drawing the highest support as the party's next leader, but a survey has now emerged showing candidate Chung Chung-rae overtaking Kim. Some view this as a backlash against Kim's claim, aimed at Chung, of alleged Shincheonji involvement.
In a survey conducted by Media Tomato at the request of News Tomato on the 20th and 21st, polling 1,036 adults aged 18 and older nationwide on their first-choice preference for the Democratic Party's next leader, Chung Chung-rae recorded the highest approval rating at 33.7%. He was followed by Kim Min-seok at 22%, Song Young-gil at 11.7%, Ko Min-jung at 5.1%, and Kim Bo-mi at 3.3%.
Comparing this with results from a survey by the same polling agency two weeks earlier, on the 6th and 7th, Chung stood at 32.1%, Kim Min-seok at 28.3%, and Song at 10.2%. In just two weeks, the gap between Chung and Kim Min-seok widened more than threefold, from 3.8 percentage points to 11.7 percentage points. At the time, candidates Ko and Kim Bo-mi were not included in the survey.
Of course, since the Democratic Party's main leadership contest reflects 70% from delegate and party member votes and 30% from public opinion polls, narrowing the focus to surveys targeting Democratic Party supporters offers a more accurate gauge of the eventual outcome. In addition, the main contest applies a 5% weighting to the valid votes of delegates and party members from the Daegu, North Gyeongsang, and South Gyeongsang regions. The voting method is also a preferential vote requiring rankings from first to third choice, adding several variables.
The above survey on the 20th and 21st also polled Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters, where Chung stood at 35%, Kim Min-seok at 32.9%, Song at 13.3%, Ko at 2.9%, and Kim Bo-mi at 1.7%. Once strategic voting against Chung by supporters of the People Power Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party is removed, the gap between Chung and Kim Min-seok narrows. In the survey on the 6th and 7th, no polling was conducted targeting Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters.
Chung appeared encouraged, sharing the survey on Facebook as soon as it was released on the 23rd. "Recent polling trends show the Chung Chung-rae current taking hold across the general public, among Democratic Party supporters, among progressives, and among those in their 40s and 50s," Chung said, adding, "I will stay lower, humbler, and work harder."
Chung went on to say, "I will not engage in negative campaigning, slandering opponents, or mudslinging. I will not run an expensive campaign. I will not rent a campaign office," adding, "I will stay lower, humbler, and work harder." He also said, "I will most forcefully punish the baseless Shincheonji suspicions. I will address acts harmful to the party that endanger it with the mindset of saving the party," which is interpreted as targeting Kim Min-seok, who has raised the Shincheonji suspicions for days on end.
Indeed, both inside and outside the party, analysts say the trend in this survey reflects a backlash against Kim Min-seok's negative campaign. In an interview with the press corps at the Gangwon Provincial Office on the 23rd, Kim Min-seok said of the basis for the Shincheonji involvement claim, "I do not raise issues without judgment," adding, "Once the preliminary candidates are narrowed down, I will have the opportunity to organize the various matters at hand and present them."
Rep. Park Sun-won, a pro-Lee (pro-Lee Jae-myung) figure running for a supreme council seat, joined in the same day, saying, "There is a tip that Shincheonji referred to the People Power Party as the 'red ribbon' and the Democratic Party as the 'blue ribbon,' and carried out membership recruitment and duplicate enrollment," adding, "If I am elected to the supreme council, I will work with a fact-finding body to uncover whether there was a giant hand helping a certain person get elected." Pro-Lee candidates appear to be mounting an offensive against Chung using Shincheonji as a hook.
However, within the ruling camp, the assessment is that if the suspicions are true, it would provide grounds for the party to be deemed unconstitutional, and even if they are proven false, it was not an effective strategy for a leading contender to resort to a conspiracy theory. Chung and pro-Chung Chung-rae candidates have pushed back strongly day after day, even hinting at legal action.
Choi Min-hee, a supreme council candidate, said on the 23rd, "Candidate Kim Min-seok, just where, what, how, and why did Shincheonji do anything during the convention process?" Choi, along with candidates Lee Sung-yoon and Han Min-su, held a press conference and said, "This is a fatal act of self-harm that drives the Democratic Party into being an unconstitutional party in violation of the constitutional principle of separation of church and state," adding, "Former Prime Minister Kim Min-seok must apologize and resign at once. Former Prime Minister Kim's baseless claims are tantamount to saying the Democratic Party should also be subject to investigation."
This survey was conducted using the automated response system (ARS) with random digit dialing (RDD) via mobile phones. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 1.6%. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
