Kim Min-seok, Jung Cheong-rae, and Song Young-gil (in ballot order), candidates vying for the next leadership of the Democratic Party of Korea, all passed the preliminary primary and advanced to the main primary. In the Supreme Council election, eight of 14 candidates survived, with five pro-Lee Jae-myung candidates, including Kim Yong, and three pro-Jung Cheong-rae candidates, including Choi Min-hee, securing tickets to the runoff. In particular, with all three pro-Jung candidates surviving, observers say the organizational strength of the traditional support base centered on Jung has been confirmed.
Soh Byung-hoon, chairman of the Democratic Party's central election management committee, announced the preliminary primary results on the 23rd at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul.
The party leadership race will be contested as a three-way contest, with Kim, Jung, and Song—all of whom have formed the leading group in polls—advancing to the runoff. In his remarks, Kim said, "I will approach the main primary seriously with a heavy sense of responsibility," and urged, "In the main primary, I hope the candidates will work together so that we can achieve a 100% member turnout, honoring the one-member, one-vote principle of member sovereignty." Jung said, "You cannot make flowers bloom while cutting the roots," adding, "I will never forgive acts that endanger the party, and through the party convention, together with the people and together with the members, I will resolutely punish and pass judgment." Song said, "So that we can build an irreplaceable Republic of Korea, so that discord between the party and the presidential office is no longer heard, the party and the presidential office will become one, and I will build an irreplaceable Republic of Korea together with all of you in the Democratic Party."
In the Supreme Council election, which took on the character of a proxy war among factions, attention focused on the three pro-Jung candidates—Choi Min-hee, Lee Sung-yoon, and Han Min-soo—all passing the main primary. This has prompted analysis that the traditional support base centered on Jung has rallied. A Democratic Party official said, "The fact that all three of the three passed means that a traditional support base with organizational strength voted strategically," adding, "It will also work favorably in the main primary."
By contrast, on the pro-Lee side, only five candidates—Park Sun-won, Kim Young-ho, Kim Yong, Seo Mi-hwa, and Lim Mi-ae—advanced to the main primary. With only half of the 10 candidates surviving, it was assessed as falling short of expectations. This was because votes were dispersed, and compared with the pro-Jung lawmakers who formed a united front, the sentiment split between Song and Kim, preventing an organized movement. Lee Gun-tae, who led a group calling for the withdrawal of the indictment against President Lee Jae-myung, also suffered defeat.
With Jung advancing to the main primary alongside the three Supreme Council candidates, forecasts have emerged that the party leadership race will, for the time being, flow favorably for Jung.
Recently released polls also support Jung's upward momentum. In a survey conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) of 1,000 people aged 18 and over nationwide on the 20th and 21st of this month (ARS method, 95% confidence level, sampling error ±3.1 percentage points), Jung led Kim (21.5%) with 25.7%, ahead by 4.2 percentage points, within the margin of error.
In a survey conducted by Media Tomato at the request of News Tomato during the same period of 1,036 adults nationwide (ARS method, 95% confidence level, sampling error ±3.0 percentage points), Jung recorded 33.7%, pushing Kim (22.0%) and Song (11.7%) beyond the margin of error. Even looking only at Democratic Party supporters, the gap between the two candidates was not large, but in surveys targeting the general public, Jung has maintained a relatively clear advantage and appears to be leading the race.
Jung's camp appears encouraged by the recent trend in public opinion. Jung wrote on Facebook that day, "In polls, the trend is what matters," claiming, "Among the people, Democratic Party supporters, progressives, and those in their 40s and 50s, the Jung Cheong-rae momentum is taking hold." He went on to stress, "I will most strongly punish the groundless Shincheonji allegations (from Kim's camp)."
Some in political circles interpret the recent shift in the race as stemming from Kim's camp's offensive, which instead led to sympathy for Jung. Seo Yong-ju, head of the Mac Institute for Political and Social Research, analyzed on YTN Radio that day, "Kim is running a negative campaign, while Jung is instead creating an 'underdog' image and keeping a low profile," adding, "That dynamic has led to sympathy, creating a flow of votes going to Jung."
Meanwhile, for details of the polls cited in this article, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
