As the Democratic Party of Korea has decided to adopt a preferential voting system for the party leadership election at its Aug. 17 national convention, attention is focused on where "second-choice votes" will go. Under the system, if no candidate wins a majority, the second-choice votes of the lowest-ranked candidate are distributed to the higher-ranking candidates. This means the final winner could be reversed depending on second-choice votes. In political circles, there are forecasts that Rep. Song Young-gil, who currently ranks second or third in opinion polls, could benefit from the runoff.
The Democratic Party held consecutive meetings of its Supreme Council and Party Affairs Committee on the 15th and approved the plan to introduce a preferential voting system for the convention. The party also finalized the methods for electing the party leader and Supreme Council members. Candidate registration will run for two days on the 16th and 17th, and preliminary primaries will begin on the 21st. The field will be narrowed to three party leader candidates and eight Supreme Council member candidates.
Under the preferential voting system, voters mark their first, second, and third preferences among candidates in a single vote. If no candidate wins a majority in the first count, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated, and the second-choice votes of voters who selected that candidate as their first choice are distributed among the remaining candidates to determine the final winner. Rather than holding a separate runoff, the outcome is decided on the same day.
Contenders for party leadership appear busy calculating the implications of the new voting method. In political circles, there is analysis that since this party leadership election is framed as a contest between the pro-Lee (pro-Lee Jae-myung) faction and the pro-Chung Cheong-rae faction, the preferential voting system could work to the disadvantage of former party leader Chung Cheong-rae. Because the support bases of former Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Rep. Song Young-gil partly overlap, supporters of the two candidates may select each other as their second choice.
Conversely, if Chung is pushed to third place and eliminated due to pro-Lee voters, whom his supporters choose as their second choice becomes another variable. While there is an assessment that Chung's supporters feel aversion toward both Kim and Song, there is also considerable antipathy toward the pro-Kim (pro-Kim Min-seok) faction, which has recently emerged as the party's largest faction, raising the possibility that votes could shift to Song.
In fact, in an opinion poll conducted by Zowon C&I on behalf of Straight News on the 11th to 13th among men and women aged 18 and older nationwide, and released on the 15th, Song ranked highest at 31.7% when respondents were asked "which candidate is most suitable as a second choice, excluding your first-choice candidate." Kim recorded 17.5%, Chung 16.3%, and Rep. Ko Min-jung 10.3%.
Song's camp said, "If it goes to a runoff, we could gain an advantage depending on second-choice votes, but we are not strategizing to aim for second place," adding, "The goal is ultimately to win."
Ahead of candidate registration, the war of nerves among party leadership contenders is also intensifying. On this day, in response to Chung's remarks to the effect that the party "should not have fielded a candidate in Pyeongtaek-B," Song struck out, saying, "It is too irresponsible. It is like telling your own son, 'I should have aborted you but gave birth to you instead.'" In response, Chung shared the relevant article on his social networking service (SNS) and hit back, saying, "This is too much. It pains me, but I will endure it well. I believe the party members will protect me."
