With U.S. President Donald Trump intensifying pressure on major allies over "security burden-sharing," "NATO 3.0" is expected to be discussed at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit that opens Monday. As Korea likewise faces the need to reduce its security dependence on the United States and increase defense spending, expectations are rising that Korea and Europe can strengthen cooperation through defense industry partnership. Attention is now focused on whether this could secure an institutional channel akin to a defense export "fast track."
The annual NATO summit, held over two days in Ankara, Turkey, brings together leaders of a total of 36 countries, including not only the 32 member states but also the IP4 (Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand), NATO's Indo-Pacific regional partners. This marks President Lee's first attendance at a NATO summit. According to the presidential office, "it carries the significance of fully pursuing defense cooperation with NATO allies, the largest defense market accounting for 55% of global defense spending." NATO member states have markedly increased their defense cooperation with Korea since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
In particular, over the past year, NATO members have undergone significant changes in their alliance with the United States. While Trump's plan to annex Greenland and the controversy over support for war with Iran were major issues, these largely stemmed fundamentally from Trump's view of alliances. Trump is implementing a transactional view of alliances in reality, one that differs from the traditional U.S. security alliance framework. With the United States bearing 60% of NATO's defense spending, NATO decided to raise its defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 as a result. Yet even afterward, Trump's "deals" have continued, including his order to cut 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany, targeting European nations critical of the Iran war, and his order to cancel the deployment of Tomahawk missiles.
Amid this, the implementation roadmap for "NATO 3.0" presented by U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby is expected to be discussed at this NATO summit. Colby, considered the architect of the Trump administration's second-term security strategy, presented the NATO 3.0 concept at the NATO defense ministers' meeting in February, with strengthening European nations' contributions to European security at its core. In June, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also mentioned NATO 3.0, criticizing European nations' "security delegation." Lee Sung-won, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, analyzed that "this NATO summit goes beyond reaffirming the goal of strengthening self-defense capabilities, such as implementing the defense investment pledged by NATO members and expanding the defense industry, and serves as a venue to review each country's implementation and follow-up measures."
Korea, participating in the NATO summit as part of the IP4, is likewise discussing with the United States a "modernization of the Korea-U.S. alliance" that would increase defense spending and lead conventional defense on the Korean Peninsula. Korea and NATO members share a similar plight, in that they are realigning their alliance relationships with the United States toward strengthening their own security burdens, and in that concrete implementation plans have yet to emerge.
Under these circumstances, Korea and NATO members are assessed as holding high value for each other in terms of "strategic complementarity." Korea possesses strong industrial capabilities such as in defense, while Europe faces growing defense demand, including responding to threats from Russia beyond NATO 3.0. Research fellow Lee Sung-won noted, "Korea's industrial capabilities are directly linked to Europe's strategic challenges," adding, "Under NATO 3.0, this is the time for Korea to set the direction of cooperation as a provider of roles to enhance the sustainability of deterrence and rearmament, rather than as an actor directly involved in Europe's collective defense."
There are also views that a defense export "fast track" of sorts should be pursued with Europe. Lee Soo-hyung, an advisor at the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), stressed, "Korea needs to pursue cooperation in a direction that secures an institutional channel through which it can smoothly export defense products to the European region," adding, "It is also important to use this as an opportunity to advance cooperation in functional security areas such as cyber security and emerging technologies, separately from defense cooperation, and to seek a foothold for Korea to engage with NATO's key committees or institutions related to defense in the future."
However, a burden in this process is that Korea would become directly or indirectly involved in European and Atlantic security issues, such as the matter of financial and military equipment support for Ukraine. Advisor Lee pointed out, "Korea must establish systematic internal principles regarding the issue of building defense industry cooperation networks with European allies, its strategic position on the Ukraine support issue, and the agenda and scope of medium- to long-term cooperation with NATO, and maintain them consistently," adding, "The Ukraine support issue should be approached from the perspective of a globally responsible power, but approaches that act as challenging factors to peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula should be avoided."
