Public interest surrounding the National Election Commission (NEC) has shown little sign of cooling even after the June 3 nationwide local elections. Online mentions, which exploded over the "ballot paper shortage incident," peaked right after the election before turning to a downward trend, but they still far exceed pre-election levels. Analysts say public attention toward the NEC is spreading beyond a one-off issue into structural distrust.
According to an analysis by Seoul Economic Daily on Saturday using "Sometrend," a service that analyzes social media text through big data, mentions of the keyword "National Election Commission" in online communities and blogs from May 26 to June 25 stood at only around 3,000 cases through April, before the local elections. As the election approached, mentions rose to 4,042 in the first week of May and reached the high 5,000s in the second and third weeks. They then surged to 14,762 in the fourth week of May, just before the election, and rose vertically to 76,689 in the first week of June, when the election was held. That amounts to a more than 25-fold explosion in just one month.
In particular, interest did not easily subside even after the election ended. Mentions recorded 41,902 in the second week of June, 20,527 in the third week, and around 10,000 in the fourth week, continuing to run high compared with before the election. Unlike typical election issues that rapidly fade right after voting ends, the NEC controversy is showing a prolonged trend, riding on follow-up issues.
The "ballot paper shortage incident" is cited as the background for the increase in mentions. This can also be confirmed in the related-word analysis: the keyword "ballot paper" was mentioned 42,956 times over the month of June, rising 30 spots from the previous month. The sentiment analysis results are also alarming. "Shortage," a key keyword that newly emerged in June, immediately ranked second with 17,990 cases. In addition, negative keywords such as "election fraud," "controversy," "mismanagement," "suspicion," "criticism," "crime," and "anger" accounted for 90% of the top 10. This is interpreted as anxiety about overall election trust spreading beyond a simple administrative error.
This trend is also affecting the political landscape. In recent polls, President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating for handling state affairs has shown a downward trend after the local elections, with the so-called "dead cross" phenomenon emerging for the first time since his inauguration, in which negative assessments outpace positive ones.
According to a poll released by Realmeter on the 22nd of this month (conducted from the 15th to the 19th, targeting 2,517 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, using a 100% wireless automated response method, with a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), positive assessment of the president's handling of state affairs was tallied at 46.7%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous week. By contrast, negative assessment that he is doing a poor job of handling state affairs recorded 49.7%, up 3.5 percentage points from the previous week. Realmeter analyzed that "the spread of accountability claims triggered by the election management mismanagement incident and the party leadership conflict within the ruling party acted as negative factors across the political landscape."
Meanwhile, the National Assembly has formed and launched full-scale activities of a "Special Committee for the State Investigation into Uncovering the Truth of Infringements on Citizens' Right to Vote, Including the Ballot Paper Shortage Incident, and for Election Management Reform." The special committee will investigate the NEC and election commissions at all levels through August 1, examining whether there were failures in the printing, distribution, and storage of ballot papers, on-site management conditions, whether citizens' right to vote was infringed, and the operation of election management personnel and budgets.
