Following recent reports of contact between Jeju Island and North Korea, an observation has emerged that inter-Korean exchanges may still be possible even after North Korea's "hostile two-state theory." The point is that exchanges should be pursued in a manner that is "not unification-oriented," even between hostile states.
Park Eun-joo, a research fellow at the North Korea Research Division of the Korea Institute for National Unification, made this assessment in a report released Wednesday titled "Parallel Hostility and Exchange: North Korea's Strategy Toward the South as Shown by North Korea-Jeju Contact." "It is somewhat premature to interpret 'the hostile two-state theory' as 'the end of inter-Korean exchanges,'" Park said. She added, "Whether what North Korea has actually discarded is all forms of contact and cooperation, or a specific form of exchange premised on unification, is a separate question."
North Korea has been redefining inter-Korean relations under the "hostile two-state theory" since late 2023. North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un instructed at the Supreme People's Assembly in January 2024 to create constitutional provisions defining territory, territorial waters, and territorial airspace, and this was actually reflected in the constitution at the first session of the 15th Supreme People's Assembly in March. Expressions in the previous constitution that defined inter-Korean relations as "hostile relations" or "belligerent relations" were deleted, and provisions defining North Korea's territory were newly established instead. Expressions such as "national unification," which presuppose that the two Koreas are one nation or one people, also disappeared.
Park noted that "North Korea, having redefined inter-Korean relations as ordinary 'state-to-state' relations, may operate a diplomatic pragmatism that accepts selective cooperation according to thorough cost-benefit calculations."
Jeju Island announced on the 8th that, as part of an inter-Korean cooperation project, goods worth 160 million won including medical devices, forest pest-control chemicals, and Hallabong saplings arrived at North Korea's Nampo Port last month via China's Dalian Port. The cooperation, conducted since early February with North Korea's Korean Federation for the Support of the Disabled, served as the basis, according to the explanation. Park analyzed, "North Korea took no follow-up measures whatsoever, such as a customary official reply or an invitation to visit North Korea, after receiving the goods," adding, "This means North Korea, while acknowledging the necessity of assistance, is taking a cautious stance on expanding it into an improvement of inter-Korean relations."
Park's conclusion is ultimately that "North Korea does not equate the acceptance of cooperation with the improvement of relations." Park explained, "Limited cooperation with local governments is a channel that can secure practical benefits while minimizing political repercussions," adding, "As its character has transformed so that exchange itself is not the goal but rather a pragmatic policy instrument that the state selectively utilizes, it poses significant implications for South Korea's future North Korea policy."
