North Korea has highlighted that its relationship with China has been elevated beyond their existing alliance to that of "strategic partners," following the China-North Korea summit held in Pyongyang. Having secured what appears to be China's tacit acceptance of its nuclear arsenal and economic cooperation at the summit, North Korea appears to be seeking to flaunt these gains at home and abroad. Observers also suggest that North Korea will focus on a dual-track policy of strengthening its nuclear forces and pursuing economic development, rather than "denuclearization negotiations."
According to multiple North Korean media outlets Tuesday, North Korea emphasized that the two countries had developed into strategic partners in connection with the China-North Korea summit held in Pyongyang on Sunday. The previous day, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping had "agreed to open a new chapter in the development of China-North Korea relations by further tightening strategic communication through high-level exchanges between the two parties and two countries, and by further expanding exchanges and cooperation in various fields including politics, economy, and culture." It also said the two leaders "reached a satisfactory consensus on strengthening strategic cooperation and firmly defending the sovereignty, security, and development interests of both countries." This amounted to emphasizing that China and North Korea had developed into "strategic partners" speaking with one voice on international issues and closely interacting across all fields including economy and military.
Analysts say that by drawing China, following Russia, into its "strategic backing" at this summit, North Korea has secured a safety net to focus on its core goals of strengthening nuclear forces and economic development. In particular, observers note that China's not raising the North Korean nuclear issue at this summit will provide significant momentum to the North Korean leadership, which seeks to strengthen its nuclear forces. Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, said, "In a situation where North Korea has specified in its constitution that it is a 'nuclear weapons state' and is propagandizing the strengthening of nuclear forces as the highest 'socialist achievement,' Xi's declaration of support for the 'Korean-style socialist cause' is analyzed as an implicit nuance of accepting North Korea's nuclear armament as a fait accompli."
The fact that China and North Korea addressed "exchanges in the military field" at the summit is also seen as noteworthy. North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang-chol and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun were unusually present at the summit venue. According to Chinese media, Xi mentioned during the talks that he would "strengthen exchanges in fields such as diplomacy, law enforcement, and military." This has led to analysis that China-North Korea relations will extend beyond the restoration of their existing alliance to military and security cooperation. A Ministry of Unification official said, "The attendance of the defense chiefs at the summit was a development not seen at the 2019 summit, and is presumed to be due to exchanges in the military field."
However, there is also a counterargument that this cannot be definitively linked to strengthened military cooperation between the two countries, given that North Korean media such as KCNA and the Rodong Sinmun reported on the summit while omitting Xi's mention of "exchanges in the military field." Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "Xi's mention of 'military exchanges' is directly connected to China's concerns about a situation in which North Korea's modernization of nuclear and conventional weapons is accelerating due to its military closeness with Russia, and its evolution into combined forces is rapid." He added, "The purpose is to grasp the technological changes within North Korea's military and the actual state of Russian technology transfers through personnel exchanges and information communication in the military field."
North Korea also appears to have secured a new engine for economic development that bypasses sanctions against the North, having agreed to expand and resume economic exchanges with China at this summit. Regarding the mention of a "full opening of the border" between China and North Korea at this summit, a Ministry of Unification official said, "We presume it means normalizing the 10 trading posts in the China-North Korea border region that had been suspended since COVID-19."
With this summit as an opportunity, North Korea appears likely to focus further on maintaining and developing its system using China and Russia, while rejecting dialogue with the United States or South Korea. As a result, concerns are emerging that a "new Cold War structure" of the South Korea-U.S. alliance versus the China-North Korea alliance, and South Korea-U.S.-Japan versus China-Russia-North Korea, could become further entrenched. Yang Moo-jin, a chair professor at the University of North Korean Studies, stressed, "To break this structure, South Korea's pragmatic diplomacy toward the U.S. and China is urgently needed," adding, "Through peaceful coexistence, there is a need to continue efforts to prevent the Korean Peninsula from becoming a battleground for great powers."
Some also point out that a new strategy toward North Korea and China is needed, as the outcome of this summit is far from the South Korean government's hopes, which had anticipated China's role in "resolving the Korean Peninsula issue." However, the government is understood to take the position that it will not prejudge whether China-North Korea relations have been elevated to the level of "strategic partners," and will assess the outcome of the summit over time.
