President Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party saw their approval ratings fall in tandem in the first poll conducted after the June 3 local elections. With support defections particularly pronounced among moderates and voters in their 30s, some interpret the results as a sign that public sentiment is sending a check to the government and ruling party, separate from the election outcome. Both inside and outside the party, the Seoul mayoral election defeat and the ballot paper shortage incident are seen as having had a combined effect.
According to a survey conducted by Realmeter at the request of Energy Economy Newspaper from the 1st to the 5th of this month among 2,013 eligible voters aged 18 and older nationwide, released Monday, positive assessment of President Lee's performance stood at 55.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous week. In contrast, negative assessment rose 4.2 percentage points to 41.0%. It is the first time in about four months, since the fifth week of January this year, that Lee's disapproval rating has reached the 40% range.
Party approval ratings also showed a downward trend. In a survey conducted on the 4th and 5th, immediately after the election, the Democratic Party's approval rating was 41.8%, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous week. The People Power Party recorded 41.1%, narrowing the gap between the two parties to 0.7 percentage points. Although the Democratic Party won numerically by taking 12 of 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial seats, public opinion is interpreted as revealing a desire to keep the government and ruling party in check.
The Democratic Party appears to be taking the survey results as voters' complex assessment of its local election report card. Analysts say the failure to retake the Seoul mayoral seat, defeats in some areas of the Seoul metropolitan region, and the ballot paper shortage controversy that emerged on election day influenced the decline in approval. The perception within the support base that the result fell short of expectations despite the election victory is also cited as a burden.
Cho Seung-rae, the Democratic Party's secretary-general, told reporters, "The election result itself affects public opinion," adding, "We understand that (the survey results) comprehensively reflect last week's election result, the controversy over an unfair election, and the disappointment that we fell short of the support base's expectations." He added, "Survey results cannot be seen as reflecting public opinion 100%, but we will accept them," and "However, I think the party must work harder to gain more trust from the public."
Particularly notable is that the trend of defection appeared clearly among moderates and voters in their 30s. Compared with the third week of May, the previous published survey, the Democratic Party's approval rating among those in their 30s fell from 35.8% to 27.5%, while the People Power Party's rose from 41.1% to 49.5%. Among moderates as well, the Democratic Party dropped from 46.5% to 42.8%, while the People Power Party rose from 29.6% to 35.3%. Within the ruling camp, some say "a warning light has come on for managing moderate sentiment."
The problem is that such signs of public disaffection are amplifying internal conflict as they intersect with the next leadership race. Ahead of the August 17 national convention, with the responsibility debate over the local elections spreading among the anti-Jung Chung-rae faction, pressure on party leader Jung Chung-rae is also mounting.
Rep. Lee Eon-ju, who declared her resignation as a supreme council member, criticized, "Our party relied solely on the president's approval rating and failed to sufficiently present strategies and visions matching regional sentiment," adding, "We should have gone into people's lives, listened to voices on the ground, and presented alternatives suited to regional characteristics." She pointed to the leadership's lack of strategy as the cause of the failure to retake the Seoul mayoral seat and the election defeats in Pyeongtaek-B in Gyeonggi and Buk-A in Busan, targeting party leader Jung.
Rep. Yeom Tae-young of the Democratic Party pointed out, "This election was effectively a bitter defeat for the Democratic Party. Yet there is no acknowledgment of the defeat, nor anyone speaking of responsibility for it." Kim Yong, a former vice president of the Democratic Research Institute and a close aide to President Lee, also said, "The heavy responsibility for strategic failure and absence must rightly be keenly felt and shouldered with their whole being by the party leader and the leadership."
Both inside and outside the party, there are concerns that a prolonged dispute over local election responsibility could become a burden on the new government's state administration. Critics point out that if the ruling camp becomes mired in factional conflict and the leadership race rather than livelihood and economic issues, the defection of moderates could accelerate further. Rep. Park Jie-won, a party elder, said, "A bloody national convention will, as clear as day, lead to a power struggle, and economic recovery for people's livelihoods, the clearing of the insurrection, and the three major reforms will disappear," adding, "We must seek a quiet national convention."
The sampling error for the presidential performance survey is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The party approval survey was answered by 1,004 eligible voters aged 18 and older nationwide on the 4th and 5th of this month, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Both surveys used the automated wireless response method. Details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
