President Lee Jae-myung's job approval rating and the approval rating of the ruling Democratic Party both fell in the first opinion poll conducted after the June 3 local elections. Lee's disapproval rating climbed into the 40-percent range for the first time in about four months, while the Democratic Party's approval rating narrowed to a fraction of a percentage point ahead of the People Power Party. Despite the Democratic Party's self-assessment of victory, analysts said public sentiment delivered a clear "warning" to the government and the ruling party.
According to a Realmeter survey of 2,013 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, conducted from June 1 to 5 at the request of Energy Economy News and released Sunday, Lee's job approval rating stood at 55.2%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous week. By contrast, his disapproval rating rose 4.2 percentage points from the previous week to 41.0%, showing a steep upward trend. It marked the first time Lee's disapproval rating had reached the 40-percent range since the fifth week of January this year, a span of four months and one week. In the party approval survey conducted on June 4 and 5, just after the election, the ruling party's approval rating fell 3.1 percentage points from the previous week to 41.8%, leaving a gap of just 0.7 percentage points over the People Power Party (41.1%).
The party approval rating, surveyed after the election, was interpreted as reflecting public sentiment about the election results. Although the Democratic Party won 12 to 4 in metropolitan and provincial government races on the surface, the assessment was that public sentiment leaned toward "checks and balances." In particular, the ballot paper shortage that occurred on election day appeared to act as a negative factor for the government and ruling party. As the party approval rating declined amid spreading calls for ruling party leadership to take responsibility for losses such as the Seoul mayoral defeat, a sense of crisis within the party intensified.
Cho Seung-rae, secretary-general of the Democratic Party, met with reporters Sunday and said, "The election result itself influences public opinion." He added, "I understand that the poll results comprehensively reflect last week's election outcome, the controversy over election fraud, and disappointment that the results fell short of supporters' expectations." He continued, "Poll results cannot be seen as reflecting public opinion 100%, but we will accept them," adding, "However, we think the party must work harder to win more trust from the public."
Looking at the detailed indicators, a clear trend of defection from Democratic Party support emerged among moderates and voters in their 30s. In the same institution's most recent published party approval survey (third week of May), 35.8% of those in their 30s said they supported the Democratic Party and 41.1% the People Power Party. In this survey, however, the Democratic Party's support fell to 27.5%, while the People Power Party rose to 49.5%. Among moderates, the Democratic Party's support also fell from 46.5% to 42.8% over the same period, while the People Power Party rose from 29.6% to 35.3%.
The problem is that internal party conflict over the election results is intensifying as it becomes entangled with the upcoming leadership race. Ahead of the party convention scheduled for Aug. 17, the anti-leadership faction is raising the intensity of its offensive by bringing the "Jung Chung-rae leadership responsibility theory" to the fore.
Rep. Lee Eon-ju, who declared her resignation as a supreme council member Sunday, criticized, "Our party relied solely on the president's approval rating and failed to present a strategy and vision that matched regional public sentiment." She added, "We should have entered the lives of the people, listened to voices on the ground, and presented alternatives tailored to regional characteristics." She directly targeted party leader Jung Chung-rae, pointing to a lack of strategy by the leadership as the cause of the failure to reclaim the Seoul mayoralty and the election losses in Pyeongtaek-B in Gyeonggi and Buk-A in Busan.
Rep. Yeom Tae-young of the Democratic Party pointed out, "This election was in effect a bitter defeat for the Democratic Party. Yet there is neither an admission of defeat nor anyone speaking of responsibility for it." Kim Yong, a former vice president of the Democratic Research Institute and a close aide to President Lee, also said, "The heavy responsibility for strategic failure and absence must be deeply felt and shouldered by the leadership, including the party leader."
For Jung, who is preparing to seek another term, the burden is bound to grow. Jung is expected to step down from the leadership soon to run in the party convention. Those mentioned as candidates for the next party leadership include Jung, Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, who recently declared his return to politics, and former leader Song Young-gil, a six-term veteran.
Concerns are also being raised about the leadership race, which is showing signs of overheating. The concern is that if the dispute over responsibility surrounding the party leadership drags on after the local election defeat, it could become a burden on pursuing livelihood and reform tasks. Rep. Park Jie-won, a party elder, said, "A bloody party convention will clearly lead to a struggle for the presidency, and recovery of the livelihood economy, the cleanup of insurrection, and the three major reforms will go missing." He said, "We must seek a way to hold a quiet party convention."
The job approval survey had a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The party approval survey was answered by 1,004 voters aged 18 and older nationwide on June 4 and 5, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Both surveys used an automated wireless response method. Further details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
