Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea on June 8-9 is being interpreted as an extension of the "renewed alignment" between Pyongyang and Beijing that has continued since last year. With this visit as a turning point, observers forecast that China's weight in North Korea's diplomatic structure—which had leaned toward Russia for some time—will grow again. Substantive economic exchanges between the two countries, including the resumption of Chinese group tourism, are also expected to be restored in earnest.
If Xi visits North Korea on June 8-9 as reported by North Korean and Chinese media on Thursday, the movement to restore Pyongyang-Beijing relations—which gained momentum after North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un attended China's Victory Day events last September—is expected to gain further speed.
On the security front, China's influence is expected to expand once again within North Korea's diplomatic structure, which had been tilted toward Russia following the Russia-Ukraine war. Yang Moo-jin, a chair professor at the University of North Korean Studies, analyzed that "for North Korea as well, it needs China's support in pursuing its strategic line, including strengthening military power, following the 9th Party Congress."
In fact, North Korea has been demonstrating its closeness with China by aligning with Beijing on major international issues this year. When U.S. Forces Korea Commander Xavier Brunson recently likened South Korea to a "dagger" aimed at China, North Korea criticized the United States, calling it "a concentrated manifestation of America's pursuit of hegemony and Cold War-style thinking." Earlier, when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited North Korea in April last year, Kim publicly mentioned the "One China" principle for the first time, expressing support for China on the Taiwan issue.
As Xi recently held a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, attention is also focused on whether this Pyongyang-Beijing summit will lead to strengthened North Korea-China-Russia cooperation. Some suggest the possibility that the issue of "China's access to the Sea of Japan via the Tumen River"—on which Xi and Putin reportedly reached a consensus at their summit last month—could be discussed at this meeting.
Japan's Kyodo News, analyzing Xi's diplomatic schedule last month, forecast that Xi and Kim would seek ways to strengthen cooperation with relations toward the United States in mind. However, a senior Presidential Office official said, "Xi's visit to North Korea is more of a high-level exchange between Pyongyang and Beijing than a strengthening of the North Korea-China-Russia alignment," adding, "While some geopolitical issues between the U.S. and China may have been discussed, whether they can be directly linked to this visit remains to be seen."
Above all, Xi's visit is expected to serve as a turning point for expanding substantive economic cooperation between North Korea and China. Economic exchanges between the two countries were virtually suspended after COVID-19 but have gradually regained vitality this year as train and flight services between Beijing and Pyongyang resumed. Recently, movements to establish a new customs office near the New Yalu River Bridge were also detected.
However, the two countries have yet to reach the stage of full-scale economic cooperation, such as the resumption of Chinese group tourism. Accordingly, observers expect that the expansion of human and material exchanges between North Korea and China will begin in earnest with Xi's visit.
Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, forecast that "with Xi's visit as a turning point, the expansion of North Korea-China logistics exchanges—seen in the recent moves to establish a new customs office near the New Yalu River Bridge—is highly likely to materialize." He added, "Economic exchanges between North Korea and China that have been blocked, such as Chinese group tourists' visits to the Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone and tourism in Pyongyang, will resume across the board."
