It was the 2030 generation, voting actively, that rescued the People Power Party (PPP) from the brink of crushing defeat across the country, including in Seoul. Men in their 20s, along with women in the 2030 generation in some areas, lent their support to conservative candidates, helping hold a minimum defensive line. Analysts say votes coalesced around practical values such as housing policy, rather than the binary frame of "men in their 20s are conservative, women in their 20s are progressive." With the 2030 generation likely to become swing voters in the general election two years away, both parties are expected to accelerate their efforts to win them over.
According to exit polls conducted by the three terrestrial broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) on the 4th, 41.4% of women under 30 and 53.6% of women in their 30s were projected to have voted for People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon in this Seoul mayoral election. Female voters, who had been a core support base for the Democratic camp, sided with the conservative camp in large numbers. The proportions supporting Democratic Party of Korea candidate Jung Won-oh were 48.5% and 42.8%, respectively. Men in the 2030 generation are also interpreted as having grown more conservative than before. Among men in their 20s, 75.3% said they voted for Oh, and 66.8% of men in their 30s did so.
In contrast to the realignment of younger voters, voters in their 40s and 50s remained firmly behind the Democratic Party. In this election, 53.2% of voters in their 40s and 60.7% of voters in their 50s supported candidate Jung. There was no difference between men and women. Men in their 40s (54.7%) and women (51.7%), and men in their 50s (61.7%) and women (59.6%) all gave Jung support around or above the majority. Based on past pro-democracy sentiment and support for the current government, they maintained their role as the core fixed vote of the progressive camp. By contrast, among those in their 60s, the PPP (60.4%) led the Democratic Party (38.8%), and among those 70 and older, the PPP (71.1%) overwhelmed the Democratic Party (28.1%).
In political circles, the trend of youth turning conservative is being analyzed as stemming from a clash of interests between generations. Because the Democratic forces grew with overwhelming support from those now in their 40s and 50s, they cannot help but reflect the interests of that generation, and a sense of backlash against this is at work. A representative example is that young people view the Democratic Party-led "Yellow Envelope Law" and the extension of the retirement age negatively. A political insider assessed, "With the recent discussions over distributing corporate excess profits and the housing issue also coming to the fore, the hearts of the 2030 generation, who feel a sense of deprivation, appear to have leaned further toward conservatives."
The assessment that the younger generation has turned conservative first emerged around the time of the 20th presidential election in 2022. At that time, men in their 20s, who emerged out of dissatisfaction with anti-feminism and the discourse of the established progressive camp, expressed considerable support for former President Yoon Suk-yeol. With the fairness discourse triggered by the college admissions corruption of Cho Kuk, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, added to the mix, the consolidation grew even stronger. In contrast, women in the 2030 generation, in response, rallied to the Democratic camp, continuing a trend of gender divergence—and this kind of frame began to waver starting with this local election. Shin Yul, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Myongji University, assessed, "They expressed through their votes their dissatisfaction with the process of recent Samsung union negotiations and the frustration they felt as housing prices surged."
This shift in the voter landscape is expected to be directly linked to the election strategies of both the ruling and opposition parties as they prepare for the 2028 general election. First, the PPP is expected to focus on cementing the youth-conservative coalition trend confirmed in this election into a fixed support base. Since the current young generation above all embraces the fairness discourse that "you can succeed if you try" as a core value, the party is expected to lead such discussions.
By contrast, the Democratic Party is seen as needing to overhaul its existing election strategy. Since analysts say the victory in this local election was significantly driven by a backlash against the Dec. 3 emergency martial law and the opposition's internal strife, the party needs a strategy to attract additional voters beyond its core 4050 support base. In particular, since the votes of women in the 2030 generation—on whom expectations had been high—have largely defected, there is a case for the party to remove much of the ideological struggle and political grammar it has pursued.
One variable, however, is that the support of the 2030 generation is conditional support tied to policy results rather than ideological solidarity. If the Lee Jae-myung administration produces visible results in livelihood economic policies such as housing, taxation, and jobs going forward, a considerable number of young people could turn toward supporting the current government. A Democratic Party official explained, "It is true that the younger generation has turned conservative, but it is not a group locked into ideology," adding, "We must regard them as effectively unaffiliated voters and focus on delivering policy and results to win over young people."
