Voter turnout in the June 3 local elections reached the second-highest level on record, but the political adage that "high turnout favors the liberal camp" did not hold true in this election. Analysts say the rise in turnout actually worked in favor of the conservative camp, as a strengthening conservative tendency across generations, centered on moderates and young voters, became evident.
According to the National Election Commission on Tuesday, turnout for the local elections held Monday was provisionally tallied at 61%. This is the second-highest turnout in the history of local elections, following the 68.4% recorded during the first local elections. It also rose 10.1 percentage points from the 50.9% turnout in the previous local elections in 2022.
In this election, the political world's traditional formula that "the higher the turnout, the more it favors the liberal camp" did not apply. Among the areas commonly classified as battlegrounds by both ruling and opposition parties, the People Power Party actually gained the upper hand in places with higher turnout. In South Gyeongsang Province (64.4%), which recorded the third-highest turnout nationwide, People Power Party Governor-elect Park Wan-su won 51.28%, defeating Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyoung-soo, who received 48.71%. In Daegu, which had the fourth-highest turnout nationwide, People Power Party Mayor-elect Choo Kyung-ho led with 53.92% over Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum (45.05%).
The political world points to the strengthening conservative tendency among young voters and moderates as a key factor. In the past, it was common for a structure favorable to the Democratic Party to form as participation increased among the relatively liberal-leaning voters in their 20s and 30s and among moderates. Recently, however, conservative leanings have strengthened, centered on young voters and unaffiliated voters, and a pattern has emerged in which rising turnout instead works in favor of the conservative camp.
Experts analyzed this change as a result of high turnout leading to the rallying of conservative supporters frustrated with the government and ruling party. Cho Jin-man, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Duksung Women's University, explained, "The fact that turnout exceeded 60% is difficult to view as a favorable signal for the government and ruling party," adding, "It is the result of voters' willingness to participate being strengthened as dissatisfaction with the government and ruling party grew."
